Valladolid – Atletico Madrid

SPAIN: La Liga – Round 15

Analysis

Team Statistics

1. Real Valladolid:
   • Weaknesses:
     • The worst defense in La Liga: 27 goals conceded in 14 matches.
     • They have earned very few points (9 points), sitting at the bottom of the table.
   • Attack:
     • Their xG (expected goals) is often low, as they are mostly forced to defend.
   • Defense:
     • Their goalkeeper (Karl Jakob Hein) has one of the highest xG conceded discrepancies, reflecting poor defensive organization.
   • Form: Last 5 matches: 1 draw, 4 losses.
2. Atletico Madrid:
   • Strengths:
     • Best defense in La Liga: only 8 goals conceded.
     • Antoine Griezmann and Julián Álvarez are in good form, each scoring 4 goals.
   • Attack:
     • Although they have scored fewer goals (21), their efficiency in key moments is crucial.
   • Form: 6 consecutive wins across all competitions.
   • Weaknesses:
     • They are less dominant in away matches (3 wins from 7).

Player Statistics

• Valladolid:
  • Raúl Moro: 3 goals, their most dangerous attacker.
  • Luis Pérez: the defensive leader, but frequent mistakes overshadow his performance.
• Atletico Madrid:
  • Antoine Griezmann: 4 goals, 4 assists, key in attacking build-up.
  • Jan Oblak: excellent save efficiency, conceding only 8 goals despite facing 8.5 xG.

Trend Observations

• Atletico’s strong defense is expected to dominate Valladolid’s weak attacks.
• Valladolid creates few chances, but they are slightly more stable at home.

Recommendations and Tips

Low-Risk Tips

1. Under 3 goals (Asian goal line):
   • Explanation: Atletico plays tight matches, so few goals are expected.
   • Probability: 70%.

Odds: 1.44 – Kelly: 2%

2. Atletico Madrid to win:
   • Explanation: Atletico Madrid is in dominant form, and Valladolid’s weak defense will struggle to hold them back.
   • Probability: 53%.
   • Tip: Atletico Madrid win.

Odds: 1.59 – Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tip

3. Over 4.5 total cards:
   • Explanation: Both teams have an aggressive defensive style, and the expected dominance of Atletico could result in a tense match with many cards.
   • Probability: Not quantified, but likely.

Odds: 1.65 – Kelly: 1%

Interesting Observations

• Valladolid has not won against Atletico since 2022.
• Atletico’s attack is less effective without Griezmann; his performance could be key.