Germany: Bundesliga – Round 2, August 31, 2024
Statistical Analysis
Team Form and Previous Results:
Werder Bremen recently drew 2-2 with Augsburg. Although they dominated the match, they only allowed 0.15 xG to the opponent, indicating low-quality chances, but still conceded two goals, highlighting defensive instability. Borussia Dortmund also won their last match, beating Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0, though they were lucky not to concede, as the opponent missed a big chance. Dortmund dominated the match with 70% possession and 20 shots. Defensive Statistics:
Werder Bremen’s defense is concerning, having kept a clean sheet only once in their last 13 matches. Additionally, Dortmund’s strong attacking lineup, especially with new signings and creative midfielders like Julian Brandt and Marcel Sabitzer, poses a significant threat. Attacking Statistics and xG:
Dortmund’s attackers, including Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Julian Brandt, performed exceptionally well in the first round, especially in terms of shot volume (Dortmund had 20 shots, 5 of which were on target). Werder Bremen’s attack was also effective but less dominant, and they failed to apply significant pressure in the second half of the match. Motivation and Injuries:
Dortmund is clearly aiming for a win to continue their strong start to the Bundesliga season. For Werder Bremen, the home advantage is crucial, but their defensive weaknesses may make the match difficult. Low-Risk Tips:
- Dortmund Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0, 75% probability)Dortmund seems to be the stronger team based on statistics and recent results. Their defense is solid, and they have multiple attacking options.
- Odds: 1.43 – Kelly: 10%
- Both teams to score (Low risk, ~65% probability)Given Werder Bremen’s defensive weaknesses and Dortmund’s attacking potential, it is likely that both teams will score.
- Odds: 1.46 – Kelly: 4%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Dortmund win (70% probability)Dortmund seems to be the stronger team based on statistics and recent results. Their defense is solid, and they have multiple attacking options.
- Odds: 1.9 – Kelly: 4%