GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 18
Statistical Analysis
Werder Bremen Team and Player Stats:
- Team Level: The team has been unbeaten in their last 6 home matches, with 3 wins and 3 draws. In the last 4 matches, they scored 11 goals but conceded 6, reflecting both the strength of their attack and the weakness of their defense.
- Players:
- Marvin Ducksch is in outstanding form: he has scored 5 goals and provided 7 assists in 17 matches.
- Mitchell Weiser is also dangerous in attack, with 3 goals and 5 assists.
- Among the key defenders, Niklas Stark and Anthony Jung are regular starters, but the team remains vulnerable defensively.
Augsburg Team and Player Stats:
- Team Level: Their away form is poor, having won only 1 of their last 12 away Bundesliga matches. In the last 6 matches, they conceded 12 goals, but their defense was solid in the most recent match, keeping a clean sheet.
- Players:
- Jeffrey Gouweleeuw plays a key role in defense with a 71.4% aerial duel win rate.
- Elvis Rexhbeçaj and Samuel Essende are creative in attack, but the team has scored just 19 goals this season, one of the worst tallies in the league.
Expert Analysis Supplement
- According to the expert analysis, Werder Bremen is the favorite in this match, particularly due to their attacking potential. However, Augsburg has shown that they can maintain a stable defense, as demonstrated in their victory against Union Berlin.
- Both teams tend to concede goals, so the “both teams to score” bet is likely.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Over 2 Goals in the Match
- Reasoning: Werder Bremen has averaged 2.75 goals in their last 4 matches.
- Probability: 68.33%
Odds: 1.41 – Kelly: 2%
- Werder Bremen Draw No Bet (Asian 0 Handicap)
- Reasoning: The team has been unbeaten at home in their last 6 matches, while Augsburg’s away form is weak.
- Probability: 70.63%
Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 2%
Surprising Observations
- Werder Bremen’s attacking potential: The team creates more high-quality chances than they allow defensively, indicating a strong home advantage.
- Augsburg’s defense: Despite recent defensive struggles, Augsburg’s clean sheet against Union Berlin gives hope for improvement.
- Injuries and Suspensions: Both teams are missing key players (e.g., Senne Lynen and Frank Onyeka), which could affect the midfield play.