Utrecht – AZ Alkmaar

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie – Matchday 19

Analysis

Team Statistics

  • FC Utrecht:
    • They have been performing consistently in the Eredivisie, currently sitting in third place, just three points behind Ajax.
    • The team is characterized by solid defense and dominance in midfield (e.g., 55% possession in some winning matches).
    • At home, however, their performance has been inconsistent, winning only one of their last five home games.
    • Sebastien Haller’s form is improving, having scored two goals in the recent match against RKC Waalwijk.
  • AZ Alkmaar:
    • They started the season extremely strong (6 wins in their first 7 matches), but fell off slightly before bouncing back into form.
    • In their last 12 matches, they have secured 8 wins and 3 draws.
    • Their away form has been improving, as they have delivered strong performances in recent away matches.
    • Troy Parrott is a standout attacker, having scored 10 goals so far this season.

Player Statistics

  • Utrecht Players:
    • Haller’s quick adaptation could provide a boost to the team’s attacking play.
    • Paxten Aaronson, despite his young age, has been a key player, with 5 goals and 2 assists.
    • Their defensive foundation is Mike van der Hoorn, who wins aerial duels at a high rate (68.3%).
  • AZ Players:
    • Sven Mijnans and Peer Koopmeiners have been outstanding in midfield, with Mijnans posting a 10.4 xG+/- stat.
    • Troy Parrott’s goal-scoring ability could make the difference, especially with his performance away from home.
    • David Møller Wolfe is useful in both defense and attacking play, having registered 4 assists.

Trend Numbers and Correlations

  • Both teams have strong attacking play, as evidenced by the fact that both teams have scored in each of their last 8 head-to-head meetings.
  • Utrecht’s home form could be a weak point, especially under the pressure of their home crowd.

Low-Risk Tips

  1. Both teams to score: (Probability: 59%), based on their previous head-to-head matches.

Odds: 1.59 – Kelly: 2%

  1. Over 2.5 goals: Based on the statistics, it is likely that at least three goals will be scored (Probability: 56.4%).

1.71 – Kelly: 2%

Interesting and Surprising Facts

  • Sebastien Haller’s Impact: He has made an immediate impact, stabilizing Utrecht’s attack with his goals.
  • AZ Alkmaar’s Changing Form: Despite a drop in form early in the season, they have been reliably performing as of late.
  • High xG for Both Teams: Utrecht has posted an xG between 1.3 and 1.9 in their recent winning matches, while AZ has been dominant with an xG over 2.

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