Copa America Quarterfinal
Detailed Analysis and Forecast
Statistical Analysis
Uruguay
Uruguay performed impressively in the group stage, winning all three matches, scoring a total of 9 goals, and conceding only 1. The team’s forwards, such as Darwin Núñez and Maximiliano Araújo, each scored two goals, while Federico Valverde and Facundo Pellistri also found the net. According to xG (expected goals) statistics, Uruguay achieved 6.0 xG, while their opponents had 1.1 xG, highlighting both their offensive and defensive efficiency.
Attacking Statistics:
- Darwin Núñez: 2 goals, 1.7 xG, 4.5 shots/90 minutes
- Maximiliano Araújo: 2 goals, 0.6 xG, 3.06 shots/90 minutes
- Federico Valverde: 1 goal, 0.4 xG, 3.13 shots/90 minutes
Defensive Statistics:
- Goalkeeper Sergio Rochet conceded 1 goal in 3 matches with an 83.3% save rate.
- In defense, Ronald Araújo and Mathías Olivera were key players, with the former making 3 clearances and the latter 6 tackles.
Brazil
Brazil had a mixed performance with two draws and one win in the group stage. They scored a total of 5 goals and conceded 2. The top scorers for the team were Vinicius Júnior (2 goals) and Raphinha (1 goal). According to xG statistics, Brazil achieved 5.8 xG, while their opponents had 2.3 xG, indicating both their offensive and defensive efficiency.
Attacking Statistics:
- Vinicius Júnior: 2 goals, 0.7 xG, 1.44 shots/90 minutes
- Rodrygo: 0 goals, 0.6 xG, 3.00 shots/90 minutes
- Lucas Paquetá: 1 goal, 2.2 xG, 2.96 shots/90 minutes
Defensive Statistics:
- Goalkeeper Alisson conceded 2 goals in 3 matches with an 83.3% save rate.
- Defenders Marquinhos and Éder Militão performed steadily, making 8 and 4 tackles respectively.
Expert Analysis
Experts have highlighted that Uruguay is a very organized and disciplined team that excels in quick counterattacks. Additionally, their defense is strong, as evidenced by conceding only 1 goal in the group stage.
Brazil possesses strong technical skills and attacking potential, but the form of some key players is inconsistent. Experts believe Brazil tends to create more chances, but their finishing is not always successful.
Betting Suggestions
Low-Risk Bet
- Uruguay to concede less than 1.5 goals – Low Risk
- Based on statistical data, Uruguay’s defense is strong, having conceded only 1 goal in 3 matches.
- Darwin Núñez to score – Low Risk
- Núñez scored 2 goals in the group stage and his 1.7 xG indicates a high goal expectation.
Medium-Risk Bet
- Brazil to have more than 4.5 corners (low risk), more than 5.5 corners (medium risk)
- Brazil’s attacking style and high shot count (41 shots in 3 matches) suggest they will likely earn many corners.
- Uruguay to receive at least 2.5 yellow cards – Medium Risk
- Due to Uruguay’s aggressive playing style, they committed 36 fouls in the group stage, which could result in many yellow cards.
Summary
Uruguay has strong defense and efficient attack, while Brazil’s technical abilities are outstanding but their finishing can be inaccurate. Low-risk bets focus on few goals conceded and Núñez scoring, while medium-risk bets target Brazilian corners and Uruguayan yellow cards. These tips are based on statistical data and expert analysis and are considered the most reliable.