Ukraine – Georgia

EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – B League – 3rd Round – October 11, 2024

Player and Team Statistical Overview

Ukraine:

1. Defense: Ukraine’s defense, featuring Matviyenko, Zabarnyi, and Trubin, appears unstable as they have conceded five goals in their two defeats. Goalkeeper Trubin’s performance has been average, with a 55.6% save rate. Their defense is relatively weak, as highlighted by experts, especially due to the absence of key players.
2. Attack: Sudakov and Tsyhankov have been the most dangerous players so far, with Tsyhankov achieving a 0.88 goal+assist ratio, but the absence of Zinchenko and Yarmolenko reduces their creativity significantly.
3. Motivation and Situation: Ukraine is at a disadvantage in the group, and every point is crucial for them. The lack of a home-field advantage (since the match is being held in Poland) and injuries are major factors affecting their performance.

Georgia:

1. Defense: Goalkeeper Mamardashvili is in excellent form with an 80% save rate, conceding only one goal in two matches. The defense is solid, especially due to the experience of Kashia and Dvali.
2. Attack: Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze lead the attack, both scoring in the previous two matches. Kvaratskhelia’s ability to create chances is particularly outstanding. Georgia plays dynamically, relying on quick counterattacks, and they are effective in converting their chances.
3. Motivation and Situation: Georgia leads the group and continues to perform well. They are motivated to maintain their position and are close to securing promotion.

Betting Tips:

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Georgia to score more than 0.5 goals (58.85%)
   • Given Georgia’s attacking potential and Kvaratskhelia’s presence, they are very likely to score at least one goal, especially against a weakened Ukrainian defense. This is a low-risk betting option based on their performance so far.
   • Risk: Low

Odds: 1.40 – Safe Kelly: 4%

2. Over 2 goals in the match (Asian total)
   • Based on previous results and both teams’ attacking styles, more goals are expected. However, considering Georgia’s strong defense and Ukraine’s lack of key attackers, this option could be slightly more risky.
   • Risk: Low

Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 4%

3. Both teams to score (48.16%)
   • Both teams have strong attacking potential, and Ukraine’s defense is struggling, while Georgia is effective in attack. According to the statistics, it is likely that both teams will score, making this a safe bet.
   • Risk: Low

Odds: 1.88 – Safe Kelly: 2%

4. Over 7.5 corners (65%)
   • Both teams frequently attack from the wings, and Ukraine has also executed many corners in their previous matches.
   • Risk: Low

Odds: 1.59 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Final Thoughts:

According to the analysis, the match is expected to be tight, and low-risk bets focus on goals and both teams scoring. Ukraine is motivated but struggling with injuries, while Georgia is in good form. A draw or Georgia scoring at least one goal could be safer betting options.