European Championship, June 26, 2024
Statistical Analysis:
Ukraine: Ukraine’s team has had mixed results recently, suffering a 0-3 loss against Romania in their last match, but securing a 2-1 victory against Slovakia. The team’s xG (expected goals) in recent matches was 2.2, indicating their ability to create scoring opportunities. However, they are vulnerable in defense, as their opponents’ xGA (expected goals against) was 1.9.
Among their players, Mykhailo Mudryk and Artem Dovbyk have been the most active in attack. Mudryk averaged 3.10 shots per 90 minutes, while Dovbyk averaged 1.73 shots. Both achieved high xG values (0.44 and 0.49), indicating they frequently find themselves in scoring positions.
Belgium: Belgium’s team also showed mixed form, suffering a 0-1 defeat against Slovakia in their last match but securing a 2-0 victory against Romania. Their xG was 3.4, higher than Ukraine’s, indicating they are very dangerous in attack. Their xGA was 1.5, also better than Ukraine’s, suggesting a more stable defense.
Kevin De Bruyne was the key player for the team, with 4 shots and 1 goal in two matches. Romelu Lukaku was also active in attack, with 4 shots and 1 assist. De Bruyne achieved 1.7 xG+xAG (expected goals and assists), showing outstanding performance.
Combined Analysis: Statistics show that Belgium is stronger in both attack and defense compared to Ukraine. Additionally, Belgium’s players like De Bruyne and Lukaku produced high xG and xAG values, indicating frequent scoring opportunities and the ability to capitalize on them. Ukraine’s main problem is their defense, where they often concede goals.
Human Expert Analysis: According to human analysis, Belgium will take the field with a motivated and strong team, especially with De Bruyne and Lukaku available. Ukraine is also motivated but has weak points in defense that Belgium can exploit.
Betting Tips
Low-risk tips:
- Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist – Low risk
- De Bruyne is in outstanding form with high xG and xAG values.
- Belgium win or draw (Double chance) – Low risk
- Belgium is stronger in both attack and defense, and statistically more likely to win.
Medium-risk tips: 3. Total goals over 1.5 – Medium risk
- Both teams are attacking-minded, and statistically, more goals are expected.
- Romelu Lukaku to have more than 2.5 shots:
- Lukaku recorded a total of 8 shots in the last 2 matches, with 5 on target. The Ukrainian defense may face challenges against him. Medium risk.
Analysis: Belgium’s strength in both attack and defense is evident in the statistics. Key players like Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku can significantly impact the outcome of the match. Ukraine is weaker in defense, which Belgium can exploit. However, Ukraine’s attacking spirit and ability to score goals mean both teams have a chance to score.