Europa League Qualifier, August 8, 2024
Detailed Analysis of the Trabzonspor and Rapid Vienna Match
Statistical and Expert Analysis
Trabzonspor’s Form and Statistics
Trabzonspor has recorded six consecutive wins across all competitions, including two victories in the Europa League. Their most recent match saw them win 1-0 against Ruzomberok. They have shown strong form at home, with a reliable defense that has not conceded a goal in their last two Europa League matches. The team finished third in the Turkish Super Lig last season and currently has good chances of advancing to the Europa League group stage.
Rapid Vienna’s Form and Statistics
Rapid Vienna is also in strong form, having won four matches in all competitions since the start of the season. In the second qualifying round of the Europa League, they overcame Wisla Krakow with an 8-2 aggregate score. The team’s performance so far shows an effective attack, scoring 11 goals and conceding only two in four matches.
Analysis and Risk Assessment
Statistical analysis indicates a 51.21% probability of a Trabzonspor win, a 25.57% probability of a Rapid Vienna win, and a 23.2% probability of a draw. The most likely result is a 2-1 victory for Trabzonspor (9.67%).
Team News and Expected Lineups
Trabzonspor will be missing Maxi Gomez, Umut Bozok, Taxiarchis Fountas, and Huseyin Turkmen. New signing Stefan Savic may debut as a central defender, while Pedro Malheiro, John Lundstram, Ozan Tufan, Cihan Canak, and Denis Dragus are all expected to start.
Several key players from Rapid Vienna, including Thierry Gale, Ismail Seydi, Ferdy Druijf, and Bernhard Zimmermann, are out with knee injuries. Dion Beljo, who has scored three goals in four matches, is likely to start, as is Guido Burgstaller, who scored three goals against Wisla Krakow.
Interesting Facts
- Trabzonspor is strong at home, especially in Europa League qualifiers.
- Rapid Vienna’s attack is effective, having scored more goals than they have conceded so far this season.
- Trabzonspor’s coach, Abdullah Avci, focuses on improving the efficiency of attacks.
- Rapid Vienna’s coach, Robert Klauss, acknowledges the team’s good form but manages expectations cautiously.
Betting Tips and Risk Assessment
Low-Risk Tips
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS) (58.22% probability, 1.64x, quarter-Kelly: negative) – Based on statistical data, both teams have a high chance of scoring (58.22%). Rapid Vienna’s attack is effective, while Trabzonspor is strong at home. This is considered a low-risk bet.
Medium-Risk Tips
- Over 2.5 Goals (57.47% probability, 1.68x, quarter-Kelly: negative) – Data shows a 57.47% probability that more than 2.5 goals will be scored. Both teams have productive attacks, making this a medium-risk bet.
- Trabzonspor to Win (51.21% probability, 1.93x, quarter-Kelly: negative) – Trabzonspor has a 51.21% chance of winning and is strong at home. Despite Rapid Vienna’s good form, Trabzonspor’s home advantage and statistical superiority make this a medium-risk bet.
High-Risk Tips for Enthusiasts
- Trabzonspor to Win 2-1 (9.67% probability, 7.75x, quarter-Kelly: negative) – The most likely result according to the analysis. This bet requires a precise score, increasing the risk, but it is realistic based on data and current forms (Medium risk).
Summary
Based on statistical data and expert analyses, Trabzonspor is favored to win, but Rapid Vienna’s strong start should not be underestimated. The safest betting tips include both teams to score (low risk), over 2.5 goals (medium risk), and Trabzonspor to win (medium risk). These tips are reliable from a betting perspective, considering the statistical data and current forms.