Nations League, September 8, 2024.
After reviewing the match’s statistical data and expert analysis, thorough conclusions can be drawn regarding the encounter between Sweden and Estonia in the UEFA Nations League.
Analysis of Sweden:
Sweden had a strong start in the Nations League, securing a 3-1 victory against Azerbaijan. According to the statistics, Sweden’s attacking potential is impressive, particularly through Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, both of whom scored in the previous match. Isak finished with 11 shots, 5 on target, and 2 goals, posing a serious threat to Estonia’s defense. Gyökeres had 7 shots, with 3 on target, and he also scored, making Sweden’s attacking front very strong.
Goalkeeper Viktor Johansson, although conceding one goal, achieved an 85.7% save rate, providing significant stability to the team’s defense. In defense, Ludwig Augustinsson, Isak Hien, and Linus Wahlqvist all performed well, with minimal errors.
Overall, Sweden dominated the match against Azerbaijan, with 61% possession and 30 shot attempts, highlighting their strong offensive and defensive units.
Analysis of Estonia:
Estonia started with a defeat against Slovakia, losing 0-1, and the statistics show a weak attacking performance, with only 6 shots and an expected goals (xG) value of 0.16. Goalkeeper Karl Jakob Hein had an 83.3% save rate, indicating a solid performance, but the defense overall was not effective enough.
The only notable attacking contribution from the Estonian team came from Alex Matthias Tamm, who had 2 shots, 1 of which was on target. Estonia’s defense seemed reliable, but their attack struggled, as reflected by their low possession rate (39%) against Slovakia.
Experts suggest that Estonia stands little chance against Sweden, especially away from home, where their performance tends to be weaker.
Low-Risk Betting Tips:
- Sweden to win by more than 2 goals – Stake refunded if they win by exactly 2 goals (-2 Asian Handicap) (Probability: 79.39%, 1.73x, Suggested bet: 8%) – Low Risk
Sweden’s performance so far, especially their strong attacking lineup, clearly makes them the favorites against Estonia. Their previous win and the home advantage support this bet. - Both teams not to score (Probability: 61.75%, 1.5x, Suggested bet: 4%) – Medium Risk
While Sweden has a dominant attack, Estonia’s weak offensive statistics make it unlikely that they will score, making this a reasonable bet.
Final Thoughts:
Based on the statistics and expert analysis, Sweden is clearly favored to win. Their strong attack and solid defense are up against a less effective Estonian team, which showed weak offensive performance in the previous match.