GERMANY: Bundesliga – Matchday 18
Team and Player Statistics
Stuttgart:
- Strengths:
- Their recent form is impressive: five wins in their last six matches, which gives them strong momentum.
- Their attack is efficient: their average xG in recent matches has been above 2.0, and they’ve scored from various positions.
- Denis Undav and Ermedin Demirovic are performing outstandingly in attack, while Angelo Stillerprovides stability in midfield.
- Weaknesses:
- Their defense is a weak point: they’ve conceded a goal in each of their last six matches.
- Injuries: key players like El Bilal Toure are missing.
Freiburg:
- Strengths:
- They always manage to score: they’ve scored in each of their last seven matches.
- Ritsu Doan and Vincenzo Grifo lead the attack; Grifo is particularly dangerous on set pieces.
- In defense, Matthias Ginter consistently performs well.
- Weaknesses:
- Their away form is poor: they’ve been winless in their last seven away games, suffering five defeats.
- Statistically, their defense is unlucky: the number of goals conceded (30) is significantly higher than the expected goals conceded (22.6).
Surprises and Interesting Facts
- Despite Freiburg’s weak defense, their xGA statistic ranks 5th in the Bundesliga.
- Stuttgart is dominant at home, while Freiburg struggles away.
Low-Risk Tips
- Stuttgart to Win: 65% probability.
- Reason: Stuttgart’s form is strong, while Freiburg performs poorly away.
- Probability: 65%.
Odds: 1.66 – Kelly: 2%
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match: 64.39%.
- Reason: Both teams have strong attacking play and are capable of scoring.
- Probability: 64%.
Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip
- Both Teams to Score: 54.5%.
- Reason: Freiburg has scored in their last seven matches, while Stuttgart’s defense is vulnerable.
- Probability: 55%.
Odds: 1.60 – Kelly: 1%
Summary
Stuttgart has strong chances, especially at home. Although Freiburg is capable of scoring, their away weaknesses may result in them being outmatched. My betting recommendations are based on strong statistical patterns and current form, suggesting low and medium-risk bets.