St. Etienne – Lille

FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Round 4, September 13, 2024

Overview and Statistics:

Saint-Étienne has had a particularly weak start to the 2024-2025 Ligue 1 season, having started with three defeats. Their opponents, such as Monaco, Le Havre, and Brest, dominated them, as reflected by the xG (expected goals) metrics. For example, in the match against Monaco, Saint-Étienne’s xG was only 0.4, compared to Monaco’s 2.0. They also struggled with 39% possession, indicating that Saint-Étienne is unable to control their matches and often comes under pressure.

On the other hand, Lille is in much better form, with two wins and one loss so far this season. Lille has dominated several matches, including victories against Reims and Angers, where their possession exceeded 60%, and their xG was significantly higher than their opponents. Their defeat against PSG, however, showed that they are vulnerable to stronger teams, but Saint-Étienne’s current form does not appear to pose much of a challenge.

Key Trends and Players:

• Lille’s Dominant Play and Possession: Lille has a high possession rate (68% against Reims, 64% against Angers), suggesting that they can control games. Combined with Saint-Étienne’s poor possession rate (39% against Monaco), Lille is expected to dominate this match as well.
• Saint-Étienne’s Poor Chance Conversion: Saint-Étienne struggles to create chances and, when they do, their conversion rate is very low. Despite this, Lille’s defense has been performing well, so the home team is expected to have difficulty scoring.
• Lille’s Offensive Power: The pairing of Jonathan David and Mohamed Bayo could be a threat to Saint-Étienne’s defense. Both players are good at converting chances, particularly Bayo, who averages 4.86 shots per game.

Low-Risk Tip:

1. Lille Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0) – (Probability: 70%)

• Based on Lille’s current form and attacking potential, as well as Saint-Étienne’s poor start, Lille is expected not to lose.
  Odds: 1.42 – Safe Kelly: 10%

Medium-Risk Tip:

2. Lille to Win – (Probability: 60%)

• Given Lille’s current form and Saint-Étienne’s poor performance, Lille is likely to win this match. Their better attacking and defensive stats make this a more secure bet.
  Odds: 1.96 – Safe Kelly: 2%