Europe: Champions League – Play Off – Round of 16
Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Sporting CP Team Statistics:
- Form: They collected 10 points in the first four group stage matches but remained winless in the last four (2 losses, 2 draws). However, they stayed undefeated in their recent home games.
- Goal Scoring: They scored an average of 1.75 goals per game, showcasing exceptional performance at home.
- Defense: Their defense is inconsistent; while they are stable against smaller teams, they suffered significant defeats against stronger teams (e.g., Arsenal).
- Possession: They average 47% ball possession, but this figure is higher (50-60%) at home.
Sporting CP Player Statistics:
- Viktor Gyökeres: Scored 6 goals in 7 matches, making him one of the most dangerous attackers. Expected to be influential again as he returns from injury.
- Francisco Trincão: A stable midfield presence, known for 1 assist and creative play.
- Morten Hjulmand: Was a key player in the defensive midfield, but will be absent due to suspension, potentially weakening midfield stability.
Borussia Dortmund Team Statistics:
- Form: 5 wins and 3 losses in the group stage, but recently out of form with 5 losses in their last 8 matches across all competitions.
- Goal Scoring: They scored 22 goals in the group stage, boasting the second-strongest attack behind Barcelona.
- Defense: They haven’t managed a clean sheet in the last 13 matches, indicating serious defensive problems.
- Possession: They dominate games with an average of 60% possession, but this doesn’t always translate to success.
Borussia Dortmund Player Statistics:
- Serhou Guirassy: Scored 9 goals in the group stage and currently leads the CL scoring chart. Dangerous in front of goal, especially on counterattacks.
- Jamie Gittens: A young talent with 4 goals and speed that can heavily challenge Sporting’s defense.
- Gregor Kobel: The goalkeeper’s stability is crucial, though defensive errors often place him in tough situations.
Expert Analysis Summary
According to the analysis, both teams are trying to stabilize their form after managerial changes. Sporting is strong at home, while Dortmund stands out in attack but struggles defensively. Based on the data, the most likely outcome is a Sporting win (55.89% chance) or a draw (21.2% chance), with Dortmund’s chances of victory at 22.92%.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both teams to score – YES
- Rationale: Dortmund’s defense is weak (no clean sheet in 13 matches), and their attack is strong. Sporting almost always scores at home.
- Probability: 62.27%.
Odds: 1.60 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Sporting CP draw no bet (Asian handicap 0)
- Rationale: Undefeated in the last 7 home games, while Dortmund is inconsistent away.
- Probability: 61.89%.
Odds: 1.65 – Kelly: 1%
- Over 2.5 goals in the match
- Rationale: Both teams tend to have high-scoring games; Dortmund scored 22 goals in the group stage.
- Probability: 61.2%.
Odds: 1.72 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising Facts and Interesting Points:
- Sporting CP’s biggest problem is Morten Hjulmand’s suspension, which could significantly affect midfield stability.
- Serhou Guirassy’s performance is outstanding: one more goal would put him among the club’s top CL scorers.
- Dortmund’s defensive issues: 13 matches without a clean sheet, highlighting serious problems, especially ahead of an away game.