EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – A League – Round 3 – October 12, 2024
A thorough analysis of the match between Spain and Denmark requires a combination of statistical data and human insights to provide a deeper understanding of the expected outcome. This analysis takes into account the form of both teams’ players, their performance, and any potential injuries that could impact the starting lineups.
Analysis of Spain:
Spain is statistically in excellent form. They remain unbeaten in their last 12 matches, achieving 10 victories and 2 draws, which indicates a very consistent performance. From an attacking standpoint, it’s worth noting that in 8 out of their last 9 games, they scored at least two goals. Joselu stands out with an average of 1.82 goals and assists per 90 minutes, along with Ferrán Torres, who also demonstrates high accuracy and productivity.
On the defensive side, goalkeeper David Raya has conceded only one goal in two matches, with a save success rate of 75%. In midfield, Fabian Ruiz has been performing exceptionally well, scoring two goals and completing several key interceptions.
However, due to injuries, Spain will be missing several key players, including Rodri, Dani Carvajal, and Nico Williams. This could affect the stability of the midfield, and the Spanish defense might be less cohesive, especially with Le Normand also sidelined. Pedro Porro and Oscar Mingueza may replace them, but these players might not deliver the same level of performance as the missing stars.
Analysis of Denmark:
Denmark has delivered impressive performances in their two Nations League matches so far, securing two victories and keeping a clean sheet in both. Goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel has been flawless, achieving a 100% save rate. The Danish defense is solid, largely thanks to the outstanding contributions of Jannik Vestergaard and Pierre Højbjerg. Højbjerg is also active in attack, having scored a goal and providing several key passes.
In the attacking line, Yussuf Poulsen and Rasmus Højlund are the most dangerous players for Denmark. Poulsen averages 1.32 goals per 90 minutes, which is a good indicator of attacking efficiency. Christian Eriksen’s experience and creativity provide stability in midfield, playing a crucial role in orchestrating attacks.
However, the Danish team is also dealing with injuries. Joachim Andersen, Mikkel Damsgaard, and Christian Nørgaard will be absent, which could reduce their defensive solidity and effectiveness in midfield.
Low-Risk Bet:
- Over 2 goals in the match (Asian goal line) – Both Spain and Denmark are strong offensively, and with defensive vulnerabilities due to injuries, the likelihood of multiple goals increases. Probability: 57.07%, low risk.
Odds: 1.36 – Safe Kelly: 4%
- Spain to Win – Spain is playing at home, and despite the absence of key players, they still have a stronger squad than Denmark. Statistical models suggest a 47.78% chance of a Spanish victory, low risk.
Odds: 1.44 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Over 3.5 yellow cards – Both teams play with an aggressive style, especially in midfield. According to the statistics, key players like Højbjerg and Dani Carvajal have already received cards. Probability: 65-70%, medium risk.
Odds: 1.66 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Summary:
The match appears balanced, but Spain remains stronger when playing at home. However, Denmark’s form and defensive strength cannot be underestimated, so it is likely that both teams will score and that there will be more than 2.5 goals. For betting purposes, low-risk tips include both teams to score and a Spanish victory.