Slovakia – Sweden

EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – League C – Round 3 – October 11, 2024

Detailed analysis of the Slovakia vs. Sweden Nations League match (October 11, 2024)

Slovakia statistics and analysis:

Slovakia’s performance in the Nations League has been solid so far. They have won both of their previous matches: 1-0 against Estonia and 2-0 against Azerbaijan. Their defense has been strong, as they have not conceded a single goal in two games. Milan Škriniar and Dávid Hancko have particularly stood out in defense, while Ondrej Duda and Dávid Strelec have been active in advancing their attacks. Suslov and Duda have also played important roles in their offensive play, both contributing goals to the team.

However, as human experts have pointed out, Slovakia is dealing with several key player injuries: goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka and veteran Juraj Kucka will not be able to play. Additionally, Tomas Suslov and Ondrej Duda are questionable due to injuries. These absences could weaken the team, especially when facing Sweden’s strong attackers.

Key statistical points about Slovakia:

  • Slovakia has maintained a 100% defensive record in the Nations League so far, with no goals conceded.
  • The team mainly scores from the midfield, with Suslov and Duda in good form.
  • Missing players: Martin Dúbravka, Juraj Kucka, and possibly Suslov and Duda.

Sweden statistics and analysis:

Sweden has also started the Nations League with two wins: 3-1 against Azerbaijan and 3-0 against Estonia. Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak have shown excellent attacking performances, both scoring three goals each in two games. However, Sweden is facing significant absences: Isak will not play due to injury, putting the attacking burden on Gyökeres. Moreover, several important midfielders (Cajuste, Svanberg) are also missing, which could weaken the team’s stability in the midfield.

Key statistical points about Sweden:

  • Sweden has scored six goals in two matches, with very effective attacking play led by Gyökeres.
  • The Swedish defense has been stable, conceding only one goal so far.
  • Key missing player: Alexander Isak, who scored three goals in the group stage.

Expert analysis and motivation:

This match is crucial for both teams, as the top spot in the group and promotion are at stake. Slovakia is playing at home, which could be an advantage, but Sweden has a strong attacking force, particularly through Gyökeres. Both teams are highly motivated, as a win would be a significant step towards winning the group.

Low risk:

  1. Both teams to score – Low risk (57% probability)
    • Both teams have strong attacking capabilities, and based on their previous performances, it is likely that both will find the net. Sweden’s attacks are efficient, while Slovakia is always dangerous at home.

Odds: 1.71 – Safe Kelly: 3%

Medium risk:

  1. Over 8.5 corners – Medium risk
    • Both teams are strong on the wings and often attack, which could lead to corners, especially if Sweden dominates or Slovakia tries to counter-attack quickly to break the Swedish defense.

Odds: 1.58 – Safe Kelly: 2%

  1. Gyökeres to score – Medium risk (approx. 50%)
    • Viktor Gyökeres is Sweden’s most dangerous attacker in the absence of Isak, and based on his previous performances, there is a good chance he will find the net.

Odds: 2.58 – Safe Kelly: 0.5%

Conclusion:

The match will be tight, with both teams motivated to win, but the absence of key players could make the attacking game unpredictable. The low-risk bets focus mainly on both teams scoring and a more conservative number of goals, while the medium-risk bets suggest betting on corners and a Gyökeres goal. The defenses on both sides are solid, so a high number of goals is unlikely.

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