Sevilla – Barcelona

26/05/2024

Statistical analysis

Sevilla ended the 2023-2024 La Liga season with mixed results. Based on the team’s statistics, I would highlight the following key elements:

1. Offensive play and scoring goals:

• Youssef En-Nesyri is Sevilla’s top scorer with 15 goals and 2 assists. He is one of the most dangerous players in the team.
• The team has scored a total of 45 goals this season, which equates to 1.22 goals per game. The xG (expected goals) is 43.4, which is roughly in balance with the actual performance.

1. Defence and Goalkeeper performance:

• Ørjan Nyland has a GA90 (goals scored per game) of 1.09 in 23 games, which suggests a relatively solid defence.
• In defence, Sergio Ramos and Loïc Badé also play important roles, both having played in more than 20 games and regularly making successful tackles and clearances.

1. Pass and Ball Possession:

• Sevilla play with an average 78.5% passing accuracy, which shows a solid passing game.
• Jesús Navas and Marcos Acuña are the most active in the attacking third, both making a significant number of key passes and submissions.

Motivation and human analysis

According to human analysis, this match is a priority for Sevilla, as it is the last game of the season at home. The motivation of the team is strong as they want to end the season with a win and make a good impression in front of the fans.

Suggestions for low and medium risk bets

1. Number of goals: over 1.5 – Low risk

• Both teams have a strong attacking game, and Barcelona tend to play attacking matches. Based on En-Nesyri’s form and Barcelona’s attacking potential, it is expected that there could be more goals in this match.

1. Youssef En-Nesyri scores – Medium risk

• En-Nesyri is Sevilla’s most dangerous striker and, based on the stats, has a good chance of scoring. With 15 goals and a G90 of 0.54, he has a realistic chance of scoring.

1. Barcelona win or draw (X2) – Low risk

• Barcelona is considered a stronger team and statistically more stable. Based on last season’s results and their general form, there is a good chance they will not be eliminated in this match.

1. Both teams score – Medium risk

• Given Sevilla’s home performance and attacking strength, and Barcelona’s attacking potential, both teams are likely to score. Sevilla have scored 45 goals this season, while Barcelona also find the net frequently.

Summary

Based on my analysis of Sevilla vs Barcelona, the following betting tips are the least risky:

1. Number of goals: over 1.5 – Low risk
2. Youssef En-Nesyri scores – Medium risk
3. Barcelona win or draw (X2) – Low risk
4. Both teams score – Medium risk

These tips are based on a combination of statistical data and human analysis, taking into account the current form of teams, motivation and performance of key players.