FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Round 18
Team Statistics Summary
Rennes:
- Home matches have an average possession of 47%, indicating moderate control during the games.
- Their xG (expected goals) indicator is above 2.0 in most home victories, while it significantly drops in defeats.
- In their last five home games, they have 2 wins and 3 losses. The defensive formation seems more stable in victories (3-4-3), while in losses, they are weaker against counterattacks (xGA increases).
Brest:
- Weaker defense in away matches, with 20 goals conceded this season.
- The team stands at 7 wins for the season, largely due to their strong home performance.
- Scoring the first goal is crucial for their victories, as 15 of their 20 goals have come early in the matches.
Player Performances
- Rennes:
- Arnaud Kalimuendo: 8 goals and 0 assists, the team’s main goal scorer. Known for his quick finishes and strong positioning.
- Steve Mandanda: Highly experienced, but the number of goals conceded (15.5) is notable.
- Defensive issues are visible from the poor aerial duel success rate (51.7% Adrien Truffert).
- Brest:
- Mahdi Camara: 3 goals and 2 assists, a key midfielder who also organizes attacks.
- Kenny Lala: Stable defense and occasional offensive support (2 goals, 1 assist).
- Weaker performance in aerial duels (25% aerial duels won by Kenny Lala).
Surprises and Interesting Facts
- Rennes is on a poor streak in the Breton derby, as they haven’t won any of the last five encounters against Brest.
- Rennes’ home form is sporadic, making the outcome of the match less certain.
- Brest’s away defense is more vulnerable, which creates opportunities for Rennes’ attackers.
Low-Risk Tip
- Total Goals: Over 2 (Asian goal line):
Odds: 1.58 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips
- Both Teams to Score (53.57%):
- Rennes’ forward Kalimuendo is in good form, and Brest has also been prolific in recent matches.
- Probability: 53.57%.
Odds: 1.90 – Kelly: 1%
- Over 3.5 Cards:
- The Breton derby is typically a tense affair, with frequent fouls.
- Probability: ~65%.
Odds: 1.69 – Kelly: 1%
Conclusion
Based on the statistics, Rennes is slightly more likely to win but is not a dominant favorite. For betting, it’s advisable to focus on safer options, such as goals or fouls. The form of both teams suggests a balanced, tactical match.