Statistical Analysis
Real Madrid’s recent performances in all competitions show an overall strong form. In their last five home matches, they have won three, drawn one, and lost one. Despite suffering a recent defeat to Real Betis, their significant victories over teams like RB Salzburg and Atletico Madrid in the Champions League suggest a resilient side.
Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé leads the team with 17 goals in all competitions, indicating a potent attacking force. Furthermore, they score an average of 2.5 goals per game at home, showcasing their offensive capabilities.
Rayo Vallecano, on the other hand, have shown mixed form with three wins in their last six outings, but key absences are affecting their upcoming match. Their performance away from home has been decent but not extraordinary, managing 17 points from 13 games. Their average expected goals (xG) stands at 1.2 in away games, demonstrating a somewhat underperforming attack, especially when compared to Real Madrid’s xG in home games.
Defensively, Rayo have conceded more consistently, with 21 goals allowed by their main goalkeeper, Augusto Batalla, which corresponds with their lower clean sheet record.
Betting Recommendations
Low-Risk Bets
- Real Madrid to Win (1X2):
Given their strong home form and Rayo Vallecano’s key injuries affecting their starting lineup, Real Madrid is likely to secure a win.
🔹 Probability: 80% - Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals:
Real Madrid have consistently scored multiple goals in recent home matches. With an average of 2.5 goals per game at Bernabeu, they can be expected to score at least twice against a weakened Rayo defense.
🔹 Probability: 75%
Medium-Risk Bets
- Both Teams to Score – No:
Considering Rayo’s injury issues and Real Madrid’s capability to control home games defensively, it’s conceivable that Rayo might not score.
🔹 Probability: 55% - Under 10.5 Corners:
Real Madrid tend to dominate possession, which often results in fewer corners. Similarly, Rayo may not push forward aggressively due to key absences.
🔹 Probability: 50% - Kylian Mbappé to Score Anytime:
With 17 goals so far and leading the offensive line, Mbappé is likely to be on the scoresheet again against a restrained Rayo defense.
🔹 Probability: 60%
Supporting Observations
- Real Madrid has had a fluctuating defensive record, with clean sheets in 8 of their latest games, but the recent loss to Betis might fuel a more concentrated defensive effort.
- Key injuries in the Rayo Vallecano squad, particularly in attack, limit their potential to confront Real Madrid’s defensive line effectively.
- Historically, Rayo Vallecano has struggled against Real Madrid, with recent draws being more a factor of full squad strength, something they lack for the upcoming match.