European Championship Quarterfinals, July 5, 2024
Analysis and Prediction
Statistical and Tactical Analysis
Portugal Statistics
Portugal has shown a balanced performance in the European Championship so far, scoring a total of 4 goals and conceding 3 in their 4 matches. Their xG (expected goals) is 7.7, indicating that they could have scored more goals, while their xGA (expected goals against) is 3.4, suggesting that their defense has been relatively solid.
Key Players:
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1 assist in 4 matches, 2.8 xG, but no goals scored. He remains a key figure in their attacks.
- Bruno Fernandes: 1 goal in 3 matches, 1.0 xG. Brings creativity to the midfield and is capable of creating chances.
- Bernardo Silva: 1 goal in 3 matches, 0.6 xG. Another creative midfielder who can set up goal-scoring opportunities.
The stability of their defense is shown by goalkeeper Diogo Costa, who has a save percentage of 77.8% and has kept two clean sheets in 4 matches.
France Statistics
France has conceded only 1 goal and scored 4 in their 4 matches, with an xG of 6.8 and an xGA of 2.6. Their defense is very strong, and opponents have struggled to break through.
Key Players:
- Kylian Mbappé: 1 goal in 3 matches, 2.5 xG. A fast and dangerous forward who always needs to be watched.
- Antoine Griezmann: 10 shots in 3 matches, 1.9 xG. Another key player in attacks, though he has not yet scored.
- N’Golo Kanté: 1.4 xAG in 4 matches. Defends in midfield and initiates attacks.
Goalkeeper Mike Maignan boasts a 100% save percentage and has kept two clean sheets in three matches.
Tactical Considerations
One of the main tactical differences between Portugal and France is the efficiency of their defense and attack. France’s defense is very strong, while Portugal’s attack, led by Ronaldo, tries to create chances but is not always effective.
Comparison of Players and Expected Line-ups
Portugal is expected to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Ronaldo as the focal point of their attack. France’s 4-3-3 formation, led by Mbappé and Griezmann, can put significant pressure on Portugal’s defense.
Injuries and Motivation
Experts believe that both teams can field their full squads, and motivation is high on both sides, given that this is a European Championship quarterfinal.
Low and Medium Risk Betting Tips
Betting Tips
- Number of Yellow Cards: Over 3.5 (Low Risk), Over 4.5 (Medium Risk) – Both teams play aggressively, and the tense atmosphere of the quarterfinals likely means more yellow cards will be issued.
- Number of Corners: Over 7.5 (Low Risk), Over 8.5 (Medium Risk) – Both teams are active in attack, and many corners can be expected.
- France to Win or Draw (Double Chance) – Given France’s strong defense and attack, it is more likely they will not lose. (Medium Risk)
- Few Goals in the Match: Under 3.5 Goals (Low Risk), Under 2.5 Goals (Medium Risk) – Based on statistics, both teams have shown strong defenses in recent matches. France has conceded only 1 goal in 4 matches, while Portugal has conceded 3 in 4 matches.
Analysis
The match between Portugal and France will be balanced, but France’s defense and Mbappé’s speed could be advantageous. The number of yellow cards and corners is a more certain betting base since both teams play intensely. France’s win or draw is more likely given their strong defense and effective attack.
The match will be tight, and probably with few goals, but the aforementioned betting tips are low and medium risk and provide a good base for bettors.