Analysis
Orlando City kicked off the 2025 MLS season on a weak note with a 4-2 loss against Philadelphia Union, even though they had 55% possession and achieved 2.4 xG. The team’s defense is problematic, as they conceded 4 goals in one match, and last season they also conceded three or more goals multiple times in matches.
Toronto FC, on the other hand, started fiercely with a 2-2 draw against D.C. United, fighting back from behind twice. The team gave several new players a chance, and the new strategies proved effective.
Recommendations
Low Risk
- Both Teams to Score – Probability: 52.26%
Both teams showed offensive play in their first match; Toronto FC managed to score twice, and Orlando City also found the net twice, but their defense is vulnerable. - Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – Probability: 53.45%
Orlando City’s defensive shortcomings and Toronto FC’s attacking capabilities suggest that there could be several goals in the match.
Medium Risk
- Orlando City Win – Probability: 58.02%
Our analysis shows that an Orlando City win is the most likely outcome, although their defensive weaknesses make this bet not entirely certain.
Observations
It’s interesting to note that while Toronto FC dropped points in several matches, they showed grit against D.C. United and were capable of effective attacking play. Historically, Orlando City performs better when they score the first goal, making a strong start crucial for them.