Nice – Rennes

FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Round 16

Team Statistics Analysis (Nice and Rennes)

Nice:

  • Home Dominance: Nice is the only team that has not lost at home in Ligue 1, with a 9-match scoring streak.
  • Attacks: Nice generates a significant number of shots (200+ attempts), with the majority of goals coming from fast counter-attacks. Their key player is Gaetan Laborde (6 goals).
  • Weaknesses: Their defense line may be vulnerable due to absences (e.g., Dante). Despite an opponent save rate of 77%, Marcin Bułka has shown outstanding performance in goal.

Rennes:

  • Away Problems: Rennes has lost 6 out of their 7 away matches and failed to score in their last three games.
  • Defensive Stability: Since Sampaoli’s arrival, the defense has improved, but in attack, Arnaud Kalimuendo (6 goals) remains their only real threat.
  • Midfield Dynamics: The new signing, Seko Fofana, might have added some energy, but the team has yet to find its balance.

Player Statistics Highlights

  • Evann Guessand (Nice): 6 goals and 3 assists, 14.4 full-match playing time, dangerous in the attacking third.
  • Marcin Bułka (Nice): 77% save rate, the best goalkeeper performance in the league.
  • Arnaud Kalimuendo (Rennes): A key player focused on finishing attacks.
  • Steve Mandanda (Rennes): Stable performance but receives little support from his defense.

Betting Tips and Explanations

Low-Risk Bet:

  1. Nice Draw Refund (Asian 0 handicap)
    • Explanation: Nice is unbeaten at home, Rennes has a poor away record.
    • Probability: 70%

Odds: 1.60 – Kelly: 4%

Medium-Risk Bet:

  1. Both Teams to Score: Yes
    • Explanation: Nice’s 9-match scoring streak, and Rennes’ attackers can exploit the defensive weaknesses.
    • Probability: 57%

Odds: 1.77 – Kelly: 2%


Interesting Facts and Observations

  • Nice and Rennes meet for the third year in a row in the first match of the year; Rennes has won all home encounters but has yet to win away.
  • Rennes’ away shots are of low accuracy (31% shooting accuracy), explaining their poor form.
  • Nice’s playing style is attack-oriented, meaning their defense is often vulnerable, especially due to absences.

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