Netherlands – Iceland

10/06/2024, friendly match

For the analysis of the friendly match between the Netherlands and Iceland, we combine statistical data and analysis by human experts. Below, I will detail the main points of the analysis that will be used as a basis for predicting the match.

Statistical data analysis

Statistics from the Netherlands:

• Players’ performances: some key players of the Dutch national team, such as Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Aké and Memphis Depay, have been outstanding in recent matches. Van Dijk and Aké are both solid defenders, while Memphis Depay is the team’s top scorer with 45 goals.
• Team form: the Netherlands have been in excellent form recently, winning five of their last six matches. They beat Canada 4-0 in their last friendly, a strong indication that they are well prepared for the upcoming European Championship.
• Goal scoring and defence: the Netherlands have averaged 2.18 points per game, and in their last six matches they have scored 14 goals and conceded only 5.

Statistics from Iceland:

• Players’ performances: Iceland’s Hákon Arnar Haraldsson and Albert Guðmundsson were the standout performers, both scoring important goals. Haraldsson scored 3 goals in 8 games, while Guðmundsson scored 4 goals in 4 games.
• Team form: Iceland have won four of their last five matches, including a remarkable 1-0 victory over England at Wembley Stadium.
• Goal scoring and defence: Iceland have averaged 1.58 goals per game, which is a bit weaker than the Netherlands’ defensive record, but they have been strong on attack recently.

Analysis by human experts

Human experts say the Netherlands are in good form and motivated to finish their preparations for the European Championship with a win. Ronald Koeman is likely to field a strong starting line-up, including Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake and Memphis Depay. The analysis points out that although Iceland beat England last time out, the team is expected to be more tired, which could dampen their performance against the Dutch.

Betting tips

I suggest the following three tips, taking into account low and medium risk, statistical data and human analysis:

Low risk:

1. Netherlands win (1X2) – Low risk

• Rating: the Netherlands are in excellent form and are playing at home. Their record against Iceland is also favourable, with nine wins from twelve matches.
• Statistical support: the Netherlands have won five of their last six matches and are a much stronger team than Iceland.

Medium risk:

2. Number of goals over 2.5 – Medium risk

• Rating: the Netherlands have scored a lot of goals in recent matches and Iceland are also capable of scoring goals, especially from counter attacks.
• Statistical back-up: the Netherlands have scored an average of 2.18 points per game and have scored 14 goals in their last six matches.

2. Memphis Depay scores – Medium risk

• Rating: Depay is the team’s top scorer and is in excellent form.
• Statistical back-up: Depay has scored 45 goals for the national team so far, and is a regular in friendly matches.

Detailed analysis

Netherlands defence and attack: the Netherlands defence is strong, especially with Virgil van Dijk and Nathan Aké. Against Iceland we are likely to see a solid defence that will be able to stop Iceland’s attacks. Offensively, Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo will be effective, especially in fast and creative attacks.

Iceland’s defence and attack: Iceland’s defence is not so solid and they tend to score more goals, especially against stronger teams. Although they beat England last time out, the Dutch team will probably be more of a challenge. Iceland’s attack will rely mainly on Albert Guðmundsson and Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, who are fast and dangerous players, but the Dutch defence will be tough to counter.

Motivation and strategy: for the Netherlands this match is an important preparation for the European Championship, so they will be motivated to win. Iceland, on the other hand, are focused on their friendlies and although they are in strong form, they are unlikely to be as sharp as the Dutch team.

Summary

Based on the analysis, a win for the Netherlands is the safest bet, taking into account the team’s form, statistics and individual performances. Over 2.5 goals and Memphis Depay scoring are medium-risk bets, but with good odds. Based on a combination of human experts’ opinions and statistical data, these are the most probable and the least risky bets.