Netherlands – Canada

06/06/2024, friendly match

Detailed Analysis and Forecast

The following analysis is based on statistical data and human experts’ analysis of today’s match between the Netherlands and Canada. I have given more weight to the statistical data, but I also use the context provided by the human analysis.

Statistical and Expert Analysis

The Netherlands:

• Form: the Netherlands have won four of their last six matches and lost two. The wins include important matches against Greece and Scotland.
• Goal scoring and defence: In their last six games they have scored 15 goals and conceded 7, showing that their attacking play is effective but their defence can be vulnerable.
• Players’ performances: Wout Weghorst scored 4 goals in 10 games, Cody Gakpo had 3 goals and 2 assists in 7 games. Denzel Dumfries, as a midfielder, contributed 5 assists in 8 games.

Canada:

• Form: Canada have won three of their last six matches, losing three and drawing one. This shows a mixed form, suggesting instability.
• Goal scoring and defence: Canada have scored 10 goals and conceded 8 in their last six matches, which shows that their attacking play is not always effective and their defence is also challenging.
• Player performances: Junior Hoilett scored 2 goals and 2 assists in 5 games, Lucas Cavallini scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games.

Correlations and Trends

• Attacking power: The Netherlands have an outstanding attacking power, especially thanks to the goalscoring ability of their midfielders. In contrast, Canada has a mixed performance in attacking play, showing instability.
• Defence: the Netherlands’ defence is sometimes vulnerable, as the 2-1 defeat to Germany showed. Canada’s defence also showed some weaknesses, especially in the 4-1 defeat to Japan.
• Lack of key players: for the Netherlands, the absence of Frenkie de Jong could be a sensitive point in midfield. Canada are also missing key players like Joel Waterman, which could affect their defence.

Low and Medium Risk Tip Offers

1. Victory for the Netherlands (Low risk):

• Verdict: Based on the stronger attacking form of the Netherlands and a mixed performance from Canada, a win for the Netherlands is likely.
• Analysis: the current form and statistical indicators of the Netherlands, especially the performance of their attacking players, make them the clear favourites to win. Canada’s mixed form and defensive problems also make a win for the Netherlands likely.
• Risk: Low

1. More than 2.5 goals per match (Medium risk):

• Score: Based on the scoring ability and defensive errors of both teams, it is likely that more than 2.5 goals will be scored in the match.
• Analysis: both the Netherlands and Canada tend to score and concede a lot of goals, which could result in a higher scoring match. Based on the statistics and previous results, it is likely that both teams will score, with a total of more than 2.5 goals.
• Risk: Medium

1. Netherlands lead in the first half (Low risk):

• Verdict: The Netherlands’ fast start and strong attacking form will likely see them take the lead in the first half.
• Analysis: the Netherlands tend to score quickly and often take the lead in the first half. Due to Canada’s defensive mistakes, it is likely that the Netherlands will take the lead early in the first half.
• Risk: Low

Summary

Given the Netherlands’ stronger attacking form and Canada’s defensive problems, the most likely scenario is a win for the Netherlands. The data and expert analysis support this. More than 2.5 goals and a first-half lead for the Netherlands are also likely outcomes, given the offensive and defensive statistics of both teams. These recommendations are low to medium risk and likely to be correct for the outcome of the match.