EUROPE: Champions League – Play Off – Round of 16
Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Monaco:
- Form and Performance: Monaco has been inconsistent, with 3 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw in the Champions League. They’ve suffered 5 losses in their last 9 games and conceded 11 goals in the last 4 matches. Notably, they suffered a 3-0 defeat against Inter and a 3-2 loss against Benfica.
- Offensive Play: The team plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with most goals scored by Maghnes Akliouche (2 goals) and Breel Embolo (1 goal, 2 assists). Based on xG (expected goals), Monaco could have expected an average of 1.8 goals per match, but they often underperformed.
- Defense: The defense shows weaknesses, especially in recent matches with many goals conceded. Without Christian Mawissa due to suspension and injuries to Jordan Teze and Wilfried Singo, they may be even more vulnerable.
Benfica:
- Form and Performance: Benfica has shown more stability, with 4 wins in their last 5 Champions League away matches. Their last three wins were 3-2 victories. They have a 47.78% chance of winning this match according to the odds.
- Offensive Play: Vangelis Pavlidis is currently in great form, while Orkun Kökçü has scored 3 goals so far. Their xG indicates they can expect an average of 2 goals per match, highlighting their strong offensive play.
- Defense: Although Benfica has a strong attack, their defense is shaky: they’ve conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches. Nicolas Otamendi is trying to bring stability, but it’s not quite enough.
Expert Analysis Inclusion
According to expert analysis, Monaco is in weak form with several key players missing. Benfica is more confident and recently won 3-2 against Monaco. Based on the odds, Benfica has a nearly 48% chance of winning, while Monaco’s is only 29%.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both Teams to Score – YES (59.42% probability)
- Reasoning: Both teams have strong offensive play but shaky defenses. In their last match, both sides scored.
Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match (57.87% probability)
- Reasoning: Based on the 3-2 outcome of their previous meeting and both teams’ current form, a high-scoring game is likely.
Odds: 1.61 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising and Interesting Facts
- Monaco’s historical disadvantage against Portuguese teams: Only one win in eight matches against Portuguese teams, with their most recent encounters also ending in defeat against Benfica.
- Benfica’s defensive issues: Although strong in attack, they have conceded 12 goals in their last five matches, suggesting Monaco could capitalize on their defensive weaknesses.
Summary
According to the statistics and expert opinions, Benfica is the favorite, but Monaco at home could spring a surprise. The match is expected to be rich in goals, making it worthwhile to bet on goals or for both teams to score.