Man City – Man Utd

Community Shield Final, August 10, 2024, 16:00 (Central European Time)

The Community Shield match between Manchester City and Manchester United always attracts significant attention, especially considering the rivalry between the two teams and their recent performances. In this analysis, I consider the following: statistical data, team form, injuries and absences, as well as predictions from human experts.

Statistical Analysis

Manchester City Statistical Data:

• The predictions suggest a 57.55% probability of a Manchester City victory, indicating a significant advantage.
• The most likely result is a 2-1 win for Manchester City (8.71% probability), suggesting a close match, but with City as the favorite.
• The forecasts indicate that City is expected to score at least one goal (91.02% probability of over 0.5 goals), and they have a 69.38% probability of scoring over 1.5 goals.

Manchester United Statistical Data:

• The probability of a Manchester United victory is 23.32%, which is significantly lower compared to City’s chances.
• The most likely winning result for United would be a 2-1 victory (5.45% probability), but this is less likely compared to City’s win.
• The statistics suggest that United is also expected to score (77.86% probability of over 0.5 goals), but they have only a 44.48% chance of scoring over 1.5 goals.

Team Form and Injuries

Manchester City:

• City’s form is mixed (WLLLLW), but they won their last match 4-2 against Chelsea, which could be a positive sign.
• There are significant absences in the team, such as Rodri, Phil Foden, Kyle Walker, and John Stones, who have not yet returned to training. Ederson’s participation is also doubtful, which could affect defensive stability.
• The expected starting lineup might include Ortega in goal, with Dias and Akanji in defense, which is not the most stable setup.

Manchester United:

• United’s form is also mixed (WLWDWL), and they lost their last match 0-3 to Liverpool, which could be a negative sign.
• Several players are injured or doubtful, including Yoro, Hojlund, and Malacia, who are certain to miss out, while Maguire, Lindelöf, Wan-Bissaka, and Shaw are doubtful.
• The expected starting lineup might feature Evans and Martinez in defense, which is also not the strongest due to injuries.

Human Experts’ Analysis

Experts emphasize that both coaches, Guardiola and Ten Hag, might adopt a more conservative approach to avoid injuries, given the importance of the pre-season match. For City, winning the Community Shield would be a goal to ensure a strong start to the season, while for United, this match represents an opportunity to secure another trophy.

Tips and Risk Analysis

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Both teams to score – Probability: 70.87%, 1.58x, Kelly: 20.65%, half-Kelly: 10.32%, quarter-Kelly: 5.16%
   Analysis: Based on the statistics and form, both teams have a realistic chance of scoring. City and United are attacking teams, and the defense on both sides could be vulnerable. (Low risk)
2. Manchester City over 1.5 goals – Probability: 69.38%, 1.43%, Kelly: 0%
   Analysis: City’s attacking power, especially with Haaland’s presence, is strong, and they are expected to score at least two goals in the match. (Low risk)

Medium-Risk Tip:

1. Over 2.5 goals in the match – Probability: 74.96%, 1.50x, Kelly: 24.88%, half-Kelly: 12.44%, quarter-Kelly: 6.22%
   Analysis: Although both coaches might play a more conservative game, the statistics suggest that a high-scoring match is likely. (Medium risk)

Summary

Based on low-risk tips, the safest bets include both teams scoring and Manchester City scoring at least 1.5 goals. The medium-risk tip of more than 2.5 goals in the match is also worth considering, particularly given the attacking statistics and form of the teams.

It is important to note that the final outcome of the match may be uncertain, but the above tips are low to medium risk and are likely to be successful. The injuries and defensive shortcomings on both sides increase the likelihood of more goals being scored.