SPAIN: LaLiga – Matchday 23
Team Statistics (Mallorca vs Osasuna)
- Mallorca:
- Form: Mallorca is on a losing streak with five consecutive defeats across all competitions. They haven’t managed to score in their last three league games (against Villarreal, Real Betis, and Atletico Madrid).
- Home Performance: They’re struggling at home, having earned just 15 points from 11 matches.
- xG (Expected Goals): They registered 1.0 xG against Real Madrid, but their attacking efficiency has declined in recent matches (e.g., only 0.3 xG against Villarreal).
- Defense: They’ve conceded a lot recently, allowing 1.8 xGA against Villarreal, for instance.
- Osasuna:
- Form: Osasuna is unbeaten in three league matches, with their latest victory being a 2-1 win over Real Sociedad.
- Away Performance: They have a poor away record, with only 8 points from 10 away games.
- xG: They managed 0.0 xG against Girona but showed stronger attacking play against Leganés (1.7 xG).
- Defense: They tend to concede many goals away from home (4 goals conceded against Girona).
Player Statistics
- Mallorca Key Players:
- Antonio Raillo: A solid defender with a high aerial duel win rate (79%).
- Samu Costa: Strong in a defensive midfield role but contributes little offensively (0 goals, 2 assists).
- Vedat Muriqi and Cyle Larin: The striker duo that started against Atletico Madrid but urgently need to break their scoring drought.
- Osasuna Key Players:
- Ante Budimir: Osasuna’s top scorer with 12 La Liga goals.
- Lucas Torró: A stable defensive midfielder who has also scored 3 goals this season.
- Bryan Zaragoza: Returning from injury and likely to come on as a substitute.
Recommendations and Betting Tips
Low-Risk Bet:
- Under 2.5 Goals in the Match
- Justification: Both teams have low attacking efficiency, especially Mallorca, who haven’t scored in recent matches.
- Probability: 63.28%.
Odds: 1.46 – Kelly Criterion: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Draw
- Justification: 9 out of their last 14 meetings ended in a draw, and both teams are showing similar form.
- Probability: 29.1%.
Odds: 3.05 – Kelly Criterion: 1%
Interesting Observations
- Mallorca’s Declining Form: They were competing for Europa League spots earlier in the season but have faced a string of defeats since the beginning of the year.
- Osasuna’s Stability: Despite their weak away performances, they have been more stable in recent weeks and have a chance at European placements.
- Head-to-Head History: Out of their last 14 La Liga encounters, 9 ended in a draw, indicating closely matched strength between the two teams.