FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Round 4, September 15, 2024
Lens:
Lens is in stable form, having won two out of their last three matches, both with clean sheets, which reflects strong defensive performances. Goalkeeper Brice Samba has been particularly outstanding, with an 87.5% save rate and two clean-sheet matches. In attack, Lens averages 1.67 goals per game, which aligns with their expected goals (xG) figure of around 2.11. Among their attacking players, Florian Sotoca and Wesley Saïd are the most active, but their efficiency is questionable due to the negative discrepancy between their expected goals (xG) and actual goals.
Lens’ defense is also noteworthy, particularly with Facundo Medina and Ruben Aguilar delivering stable defensive work. Furthermore, Lens earns many corners per game (an average of 7.5 corners per match), providing opportunities to pose a threat from set pieces.
Lyon:
This season has been challenging for Lyon, as they lost their first two matches and only secured a victory in the third against Strasbourg. Their expected goals (xG) so far this season is 5.0, indicating that they are creating more chances than they are converting. This is partly due to the lack of efficiency from Alexandre Lacazette and Georges Mikautadze, who have had several good opportunities but failed to capitalize on them.
Lyon’s defense is also problematic, as their opponents can expect an average of 4.67 goals against them (xGA), indicating that their defense is not solid enough. Goalkeeper Lucas Perri’s 63.6% save efficiency is also weak, signaling further issues.
Low-risk bet tip:
- Lens win or draw (1X) + total goals under 3.5
- Lens is highly motivated at home, and their defensive stats are favorable.
Given Lyon’s attacking metrics (1.66 xG average) and Lens’ strong defense, it is unlikely that the match will be high-scoring.
Odds: 1.9 – Safe Kelly: 4%