EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – League B – Round 5
General Observations
Kazakhstan has shown a particularly weak form in the 2024–2025 Nations League series so far. In their four matches, they have recorded one draw and three losses, failing to score a single goal. This statistic is especially notable as Kazakhstan’s forwards and midfielders, such as Zaynutdinov and Aymbetov, have not managed to score, highlighting significant weaknesses in their attacking game. Experts note that Kazakhstan is “competing against teams at the top of their group but unable to keep up,” which is reflected in their current results.
In contrast, Austria has shown impressive form in recent matches, particularly in their attacking play. The Austrian team scored nine goals in their last two games, a standout statistic compared to other teams in the group. Marcel Sabitzer, Philipp Lienhart, and Marko Arnautovic are leading the charge in the attacking zone, each performing well in recent games. The Austrian team thus approaches this match confidently, with the goal of advancing to the highest level.
Tactical Comparison and Forecasts
Kazakhstan will likely adopt a more defensive 4-2-3-1 or 5-4-1 formation again, aimed at preventing Austria’s quick attacks and goal-scoring opportunities. According to data so far, Kazakhstan has earned an average of 0.25 points per game, indicating a likely focus on defense and holding out for a draw. However, their defense is also prone to errors, having conceded eight goals across the four matches.
Austria is expected to take an attacking approach, motivated by the chance to lead the group, and they are statistically clear favorites. Austria typically uses a 4-2-3-1 formation, where Arnautovic and Sabitzer play key roles in creating attacks and scoring. The Austrian team is focused on scoring as many goals as possible to secure their position at the top of the table. According to experts, “Austria is currently fighting for promotion, while Kazakhstan is likely to remain in League B.”
Suggestions and Betting Tips
Based on statistical and tactical analysis, we offer the following betting tips, considering various risk levels.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Under 3.5 Goals – Probability: 54%
Although Austria is capable of scoring multiple goals, Kazakhstan is expected to defend tightly. This may result in Austria winning by a narrow margin.
Odds: 1.54 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Both Teams to Score: NO – Probability: 54%
Since Kazakhstan has not yet scored in the Nations League series, it is unlikely that they will score against the Austrian team either.
Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Summary
The Austrian team appears to be the favorite by all measures, according to both statistical indicators and expert opinions. The expected outcome is an Austrian victory, which would help them in securing the top position in the group.