EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – A-League – Round 3 – October 10, 2024
Statistical Analysis of the Italian Team
The Italian team is at the top of the group after two matches, having won both, scoring 5 goals and conceding only 2. Federico Dimarco, Davide Frattesi, and Giacomo Raspadori stand out in the attacking section. Frattesi and Raspadori have both scored 2 goals in the two matches, proving they can be a significant threat to the Belgian defense. Dimarco, even as a midfielder, is a goal-scoring threat and could play an essential role in contributing to the attacks.
Statistical Analysis of the Belgian Team
Belgium’s statistics are not as impressive as Italy’s. They have registered one win and one loss so far. The team’s main problem is the absence of Kevin De Bruyne and Lukaku. These players would have played a crucial role in the attack and control of the game. The Italian defense might be more effective against them since the Belgian forwards, like Loïs Openda and Dodi Lukebakio, have not shown remarkable form yet. Openda has attempted 7 shots so far but has not found the net, indicating poor finishing.
Motivation and Team Morale
According to experts, there is tension among the players in the Belgian team, particularly due to De Bruyne’s frustration and Courtois’s absence. Such internal issues generally affect performance. In contrast, Italy is motivated to win the group, and playing at home is an added advantage for them.
Low-Risk Betting Suggestion:
- Italy Draw or Win (1X) + Under 3.5 Goals: Based on the statistics, neither team has shown particularly high goal numbers in previous matches, so we can expect a low-scoring game.
Odds: 1.70 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards: Both teams tend to commit fouls, with Italy committing 20 and Belgium 19 fouls over the two matches. This suggests that we can expect multiple yellow cards. Low Risk.
Odds: 1.61 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Italy to Win (Probability: 62.81%): Italy’s form is better, they are playing at home, and they are highly motivated. Belgium’s internal problems and missing key players reduce their chances. Low Risk. (The tip became a winner due to early payout)
Odds: 1.98 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary
Based on the analysis and statistics, Italy is the favorite, especially at home. Low-risk bets include Italy’s victory and Belgium scoring under 1.5 goals. It’s also worth betting on yellow cards and a low number of goals since the match doesn’t promise an exceptionally high score. Belgium’s internal issues and the absence of their key players are likely to significantly impact their performance, making an Italian victory more probable.