Nations League, September 9, 2024.
Based on a detailed analysis of the match, it is important to consider both statistical data and expert analysis, which provides additional context. While statistics are given more weight in the analysis, expert opinions can provide valuable background information regarding player form, motivation, and expected tactics.
Statistical Analysis of Israel:
Israel’s statistics show the team is struggling against stronger opponents, such as Belgium, against whom they suffered a 3-1 defeat. The attacking unit created few opportunities, ending the match with only 10 shots, of which just 2 were on target (20% accuracy). Anan Khalaili was the most active forward with 2 shots, 1 of which was on target, but he remained goalless. Manor Solomon, one of the team’s biggest talents, also struggled in front of goal, failing to register a single shot on target. Defensively, they were vulnerable, conceding 3 goals, with goalkeeper Yoav Gerafi achieving a 60% save rate, which is not very convincing.
Israel’s defense is prone to mistakes, especially under pressure. The team commits a significant number of fouls, receiving 7 yellow cards and making 9 fouls in the match against Belgium, indicating that players often resort to fouls to stop opposition attacks.
Statistical Analysis of Italy:
In contrast, Italy began their Nations League campaign with a strong 3-1 victory over France, suggesting a confident performance. The team has several attacking options, with Federico Dimarco and Davide Frattesi scoring key goals, while substitute Giacomo Raspadori also found the net. Italy’s attacking efficiency was much higher, with 11 shots, 6 on target (54.5% accuracy), resulting in 3 goals. Their defense was more stable, conceding just 1 goal, with Gianluigi Donnarumma achieving a 66.7% save rate.
Italy’s motivation and momentum are strong as they enter a new era under coach Luciano Spalletti. The team has adopted updated tactics and introduced several young talents for this Nations League campaign. Despite the absence of key players like Gianluca Scamacca and Nicolò Barella, the replacements proved themselves in the previous match.
Risk Analysis and Betting Recommendations:
Low-Risk Tips:
- Italy to Win (Probability: 39%) – Italy showed a stable performance against France, while Israel struggled against Belgium. Italy is motivated, and the statistics give them a significant chance of winning.
- Risk: Low, Odds: 1.35x, Suggested bet: 2%
- Israel to Score Under 1.5 Goals (Probability: 64.53%) – Israel’s attacking statistics are weak, and they struggled to create chances against Belgium. Italy’s defense is likely to limit their scoring opportunities.
- Risk: Low, Odds: 1.20x, Suggested bet: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Total Goals Under 3.5 (Probability: 73.82%) – Based on the statistics, both teams might adopt a more defensive style, especially Israel, which was vulnerable in their previous match, but a high-scoring game is not expected.
- Risk: Medium, Odds: 1.55x, Suggested bet: 4%
Additional Note:
Israel’s play has been more aggressive in terms of yellow cards, with a high number of fouls so far. If the outcome of the match is not clear, it may be worth considering betting on the number of yellow cards.