Ipswich Town – Brighton

England: Premier League – Round 21

Team Statistics

Ipswich Town:

• Form: Ipswich is fighting to move out of the relegation zone. Their attacking play struggled earlier in the season, but they’ve gained 4 points in their last two league matches.
• Home Performance: Previously weak, but the victory against Chelsea has given them momentum.
• Scoring Efficiency: Averaging 6.1 shots per match, which is relatively low, yet they still score about 1 goal per game.
• Key Player Absences: Injuries to Omari Hutchinson, Conor Chaplin, and other key players may hinder their attacking efforts.

Brighton:

• Form: Brighton appears more reliable but has drawn too many matches. They have recorded 4 draws in their last 5 league games.
• Defense: Their strength lies in defense, as shown by several goalless draws.
• Forwards: Kaoru Mitoma and Danny Welbeck are crucial, though several key players are injured.
• Away Performance: Averaging 1.4 xG per match, indicating decent attacking potential.

Player Statistics

Ipswich:

• Liam Delap: 8 goals and 2 assists, a key player in their attacking efforts.
• Leif Davis: A defender with 2 assists, contributing to their offensive plays.
• Defensive Weakness: An average negative xG difference of 1.09 per match.

Brighton:

• Kaoru Mitoma: 3 goals and 2 assists; the primary playmaker in attack.
• Carlos Baleba: Consistent as a defensive midfielder.
• Goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen: Solid defense, with a negative xG difference of just 0.24.

Low-Risk Tip:

1. Both Teams to Score (Probability: ~65%)
   • Ipswich’s home form is improving, and Brighton generally scores away from home.
   Odds: 1.64 – Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tips:

2. Over 2.5 Goals (Probability: ~65%)
   • Both teams tend to play open, competitive games.
   Odds: 1.70 – Kelly: 2%
3. Draw (Probability: ~22%)
   • Considering Brighton’s streak of draws and Ipswich’s resurgence, a close match is likely.
   Odds: 3.80 – Kelly: 0.5%
4. Over 3.5 Yellow Cards
   • Both teams tend to commit fouls in tight matches.
   Odds: 1.41 – Kelly: 1%

Interesting Observations

1. Brighton has conceded only 2 goals in their last five league matches but hasn’t won in 8 games.
2. Ipswich averages just 6.1 shots per game but still manages to score 1 goal per match.
3. Expert analysis suggests Brighton has a 46.77% chance of winning, but Ipswich often surprises at home.

Final Thoughts

The Ipswich-Brighton match is unpredictable, but based on statistics and expert opinions, betting on goals and a close result seems wise.