SPAIN: LaLiga – Matchday 24
1. Detailed Analysis of Team and Player Statistics
Girona
- Form and Performance: Girona is currently in 8th place with 9 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses. They have lost 3 of their last 4 matches, including a 3-0 defeat against Athletic Bilbao.
- Attacking Potential: Their xG (expected goals) is around 1.7 over 23 matches, indicating they are capable of creating chances.
- Defensive Weaknesses: Their xGA (expected goals against) is around 1.5, and they have conceded many goals in recent matches.
- Key Players:
- Abel Ruiz is a crucial attacking player (6 goals).
- Miguel Gutiérrez contributes to attacks with 4 assists.
- Paulo Gazzaniga, the goalkeeper, has saved over 27 goals but can be unreliable at times.
Getafe
- Form and Performance: Getafe is unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws).
- Defensive Strengths: They have conceded only 17 goals in 23 matches, which is the second-best in the league (only Atlético Madrid is better).
- Attacking Weaknesses: They’ve scored only 18 goals in 23 matches, making it one of the worst in the league.
- Key Players:
- Borja Mayoral has scored 8 goals but is coming back from injury.
- David Soria (goalkeeper) has allowed 5.5 fewer goals than expected based on the xGA metric.
- Mauro Arambarri provides stability in the midfield.
2. Sample Analysis and Key Findings
- Girona has won 6 out of 11 home matches this year, while Getafe has secured three consecutive away victories.
- Getafe’s defensive strategy is outstanding, but they struggle offensively.
- Girona has won the last two home matches against Getafe (3-0 and 1-0).
- Based on the data, Girona has a 51.62% chance of winning, a draw is 24.7%, and Getafe has a 23.65% chance of winning.
Low-Risk Tip:
1️⃣ “Girona draw no bet (Asian handicap 0)” – 75.66% probability
➡️ Both teams show a defensive style, and Getafe tends to score few goals.
Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tip:
2️⃣ “Girona win” – 51.62% probability
➡️ Girona is capable of close wins at home and beat Getafe 1-0 in the previous season.
Odds: 2.05 – Kelly: 1%
4. Surprising Facts
📌 Getafe won 3 consecutive away matches while conceding only 1 goal.
📌 Borja Mayoral’s return could be significant, as Getafe’s attack struggled without him.
📌 Girona has a good home record but has shown inconsistent performances recently.
Final Conclusion
📊 Probable outcomes: Girona win (51.62%), draw (24.7%), Getafe win (23.65%).
⚽ Best betting option: Expect a low-scoring match, likely ending 1-0 or 1-1.