14/06/2024
Final Result: 5-1
Tip Results and Odds:
- Germany wins (low risk): 1.31 – Winner
- Under 3.5 goals (low risk): Not won
- Havertz scores (medium risk): 2.45 – Winner
Total odds of winning tips: 3.3
Analysis and Recommendations
Analysis of Statistical Data and Expert Article Correlations
Based on the statistical data of the German and Scottish national teams and the expert analysis, the following correlations and trends can be observed:
- German National Team:
- Form and Performance: Germany has secured three wins and one draw in friendly matches, including victories against France and the Netherlands. However, the team tends to concede goals, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 international matches.
- Player Statistics: Kai Havertz and Toni Kroos stand out in terms of assists and goals, while Marc-André ter Stegen has achieved a 50% clean sheet rate.
- Missing and Injured Players: Leon Goretzka, Serge Gnabry, and Timo Werner will be absent, along with Aleksandar Pavlovic due to illness. Emre Can has been included in the squad.
- Motivation: Nagelsmann and the German team aim to return to successful European campaigns on home soil, providing significant motivation.
- Scottish National Team:
- Form and Performance: Scotland’s form has declined, with only one win in their last nine matches. They achieved important victories in the early stages of the Euro qualifiers but have underperformed recently.
- Player Statistics: Scott McTominay has excelled in scoring goals, while Angus Gunn has shown good save percentages in goal.
- Missing and Injured Players: Lyndon Dykes and Ben Doak will be absent, while Andy Robertson, Scott McTominay, and Stuart Armstrong have returned from injuries.
- Motivation: Scotland’s goal is to progress beyond the group stage, providing strong motivation, though the match against Germany might be seen as a “free hit,” allowing them to play more freely.
Betting Tips for the Match
Low-Risk Tips:
- Germany Wins (Low Risk)
- Reasoning: Germany is playing on home soil and has recently defeated strong opponents like France and the Netherlands. Scotland’s form has declined, and they have several key players injured.
- Statistical Support: Germany has secured three wins and one draw in friendly matches in 2024, while Scotland has only one win in their last nine matches.
- Under 3.5 Goals (Low Risk)
- Reasoning: Although Germany tends to concede goals, Scotland’s attack has been weaker recently, and the absence of Dykes further reduces their attacking threat.
- Statistical Support: Four of Scotland’s last six matches have seen fewer than 2.5 goals, while Germany’s last two matches have seen a total of three goals.
Team Analysis
- Germany’s Offensive Power: Kai Havertz and Toni Kroos have recently delivered outstanding performances. Havertz’s scoring ability and Kroos’s assists can play significant roles in the match outcome.
- Germany’s Defense: The defense has not been perfect lately, as they have conceded goals in every match. However, the goalkeepers, particularly ter Stegen, have performed well.
- Scotland’s Offensive Power: Scott McTominay is one of the most dangerous players, but the absence of Dykes significantly reduces their attacking power. Shankland and McGinn may also be crucial.
- Scotland’s Defense: Angus Gunn has shown good save percentages, but the defense often makes mistakes, which Germany can exploit.
Interesting Facts from the Expert Analysis
- Germany’s Home Advantage and Historical Results: Germany has reached at least the semi-finals in the last three major tournaments they hosted.
- Scotland’s Previous Failures: Scotland has never progressed beyond the group stage in the European Championship, and their current form suggests this trend may continue.
Conclusion
Germany’s chances are significantly better due to home advantage and the current form of their players. The safest tips include Germany’s victory, fewer than 3.5 goals in the match, and Havertz scoring. These are all low or medium-risk tips based on analysis and statistical data, making a successful bet more likely.