Germany – Hungary

European Championship, June 19, 2024, 18:00 (CET)

Statistical Data and Analysis

Germany

The German national team has performed confidently in the group stage so far. The 5-1 victory against Scotland was particularly outstanding. Based on statistical data:

1. Offensive Performance:
   • Kai Havertz: 3 goals and 1 assist in 4 matches. His shots are accurate, and his expected goals (xG) value is 1.35, indicating that most of his goals are not a surprise.
   • Florian Wirtz: 2 goals in 5 matches, 3.3 shots/90 minutes. His xG is 0.33, showing he is also efficient in taking chances.
2. Defense and Goalkeeper Performance:
   • Manuel Neuer: 1 goal conceded in 3 matches, 33.3% clean sheet rate.
   • Antonio Rüdiger: Strong defense, 3.8 tackles and interceptions per match.
3. Passing and Playmaking:
   • Toni Kroos and Joshua Kimmich possess excellent passing accuracy (97.1% and 88.9%), crucial for ball possession and building attacks.

Hungary

Hungary’s group stage performance includes a notable 3-1 loss against Switzerland. Based on statistical data:

1. Offensive Performance:
   • Dominik Szoboszlai: 6 goals and 4 assists in 13 matches. His xG is 0.87 per match, indicating he is dangerous in critical situations.
   • Barnabás Varga: 7 goals in 11 matches, 0.9 xG per match, showing remarkable efficiency.
2. Defense and Goalkeeper Performance:
   • Dénes Dibusz: 7 goals conceded in 10 matches, 44.4% clean sheet rate.
   • Attila Szalai: Outstanding defense, 11.9 tackles and interceptions per match.
3. Passing and Playmaking:
   • Ádám Nagy and Attila Szalai play crucial roles in linking midfield and defense. Their high passing accuracy (84.4% and 84.0%) provides stability to the team.

Risk Assessment and Tips

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Germany to win: Germany is in stronger form and several key players have performed exceptionally well in previous matches. (Low risk)
2. Over 2.5 goals in the match: Germany’s attacking line is productive, and Hungary can also score goals, making a high goal count likely. (Low risk)
3. Kai Havertz to score: Given Havertz’s current form and xG, he is very likely to score. (Low risk)

Medium-Risk Tips:

1. Both teams to score: Hungary is also capable of scoring, while Germany’s attack is almost certain to find the net. (Medium risk)
2. Dominik Szoboszlai to score or assist: Szoboszlai is in excellent form and often contributes to goal preparations. (Medium risk)

Player Comparison and Team Structure

Germany:

• Key players like Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz, and Joshua Kimmich are expected to start.
• In defense, Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah provide stability.

Hungary:

• Dominik Szoboszlai and Barnabás Varga are key figures in attacks.
• Dénes Dibusz is expected to start in goal, with Attila Szalai and Ádám Lang playing important roles in defense.

Injuries and Absences:

• Injuries or suspensions do not play a significant role in the current analysis; key players for both teams are available.

Motivation and Conclusion

Both teams are highly motivated, but Germany, playing at home and in better form, has the advantage. Hungary is also motivated, especially after the loss to Switzerland, but based on statistics and player form, Germany is the favorite.

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Germany to win (Low risk)
2. Over 2.5 goals (Low risk)
3. Kai Havertz to score (Low risk)

Based on the above tips and analyses, the match is likely to go in Germany’s favor, but Hungary could also surprise, especially with their attacking line.