France – Poland

European Championship Group Stage, June 25, 2024, 18:00

Detailed Analysis of the Match Between France and Poland

Statistical Data

France:

• Form Period: France has shown strong performance in recent matches, with 5 wins and 2 draws in the last 7 games, including a 1-0 win against Austria and a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands in the European Championship group stage.
• Player Performance:
  • Antoine Griezmann: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.8 xG.
  • Kylian Mbappé: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.8 xG.
  • Defensive Performance: Goalkeeper Mike Maignan made 7 saves with a 100% save rate.

Poland:

• Form Period: Poland has been less successful, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last 7 matches. In the group stage, they suffered two losses: 1-2 against the Netherlands and 1-3 against Austria.
• Player Performance:
  • Piotr Zieliński: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.4 xG.
  • Adam Buksa: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.2 xG.
  • Defensive Performance: Goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny made 13 saves but had only a 69.2% save rate.

Expert Analysis

Experts believe that France has a strong attacking line, especially with Griezmann and Mbappé leading the way. The French team is also characterized by strong defense, which operates very efficiently with Maignan at the helm. Experts highlight that France is motivated and in good form, which could be an advantage against the Polish team.

Poland, on the other hand, is in a difficult situation, particularly due to their weaker defensive performance. However, Zieliński and Buksa are in good form, which gives them some hope.

Players and Possible Starting Lineups

France:

• Absentees/Injury List: No significant absentees.
• Key Players: Griezmann, Mbappé, Maignan, Koundé, Kanté.

Poland:

• Absentees/Injury List: No significant absentees.
• Key Players: Zieliński, Buksa, Szczęsny, Kiwior, Zalewski.

Betting Tips and Risk Assessment

Low-Risk Tips:

1. France to Win: France has better form and statistics, especially in attack and defense. Low risk.
2. Total Goals Under 3.5: There haven’t been many goals in recent matches between France and Poland; defenses may dominate. Low risk.
3. France Over 4.5 Corners: Based on the frequency of French attacks, they are likely to win many corners. Low risk.

Medium-Risk Tips:

1. Kylian Mbappé to Score Anytime: Given Mbappé’s outstanding attacking form and xG statistics, it is likely he will score. (If Mbappé does not play, this bet is void) Medium risk.
2. Poland to Receive Over 2.5 Yellow Cards: Poland’s weak defense and frustration have often led to fouls. Medium risk.

Summary

Given France’s dominant statistics and strong attacking play, their victory seems more likely. Poland’s weaker defense makes them less favored, but their attacking options and form of some key players should not be completely disregarded. Safer bets focus on a French win and few goals, while riskier but potentially more profitable bets involve individual player performances and the number of yellow cards.