Nations League, September 09, 2024
France team statistical analysis:
France’s first match in the Nations League ended in failure, losing 1-3 to Italy. Although Bradley Barcola’s early goal gave them the lead, their defense crumbled, especially in the second half. The most concerning statistic is their defensive weakness: France conceded 3 goals and only managed to stop 3 of Italy’s 6 shots on target. Mike Maignan’s performance was mediocre, saving only 50% of the shots, which is insufficient for a match of this caliber.
France’s attackers, such as Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann, struggled to create effective chances. Mbappé took 2 shots, but only one was on target. Bradley Barcola, who scored, was the only truly active forward with 3 shots. Ousmane Dembélé also tried but couldn’t hit the target.
France’s defense needs improvement in the next match, particularly center-backs Ibrahima Konaté and William Saliba, who failed to close down the opponents’ attacks effectively.
Belgium team statistical analysis:
Belgium, on the other hand, secured a confident 3-1 win over Israel. Kevin De Bruyne stood out, scoring two goals and leading the team in attack. Their 64% possession shows they dominated the game. Youri Tielemans also scored, and Belgium’s attack proved to be very dynamic. Loïs Openda took six shots, though only two were on target, but his presence poses a serious threat to France’s defense.
Belgium’s defense, however, remains uncertain, as goalkeeper Koen Casteels produced a 66.7% save rate, but the defense occasionally looked careless. This was especially noticeable with Timothy Castagne and Wout Faes, who sometimes lost track of the opposition’s attackers.
Low and medium risk betting suggestions:
1. France wins the match, stake refunded in case of a draw – Low risk (probability: 81.58%, 1.37x, Suggested stake: 8%)
Based on the statistics, France has the highest chance of winning. Although Belgium is in great form, France’s motivation to avoid a second home defeat could be decisive. The data suggests a close, but French victory.
Analysis and conclusions:
France needs to fix the defensive problems they encountered in the previous match, while Belgium’s attacks, led by De Bruyne and Openda, can remain effective. The analysis makes France the favorite, but Belgium might be capable of springing a surprise.