EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – B-League – 3rd Round – October 10, 2024
Statistical Analysis
1. Team Performance in the UEFA Nations League:
- Finland began the 2024-2025 Nations League season with two losses, first losing 3-0 to Greece and then suffering a 2-0 defeat against England. In these matches, Finland failed to score a goal and managed just one shot on target.
- Ireland has shown similar poor form, also losing to England and Greece by 2-0 in both games. It’s worth noting that Ireland did not score a goal in these two matches either.
2. Goal Statistics and Probabilities:
- Finland’s probability of winning stands at 54%, while Ireland’s chances are only 21.58%. The probability of a draw is 24.4%. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Finland (12.17%).
- The data indicates that both teams have relatively weak attacking power, especially Ireland, which has failed to score in 12 out of their 18 Nations League matches. Based on these statistics, it is likely that this will be a low-scoring match.
3. Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:
- Lukáš Hrádecký, Finland’s goalkeeper, conceded 5 goals in two matches but has a save percentage of 64.3%, which is not a bad statistic for this level of competition. Caoimhín Kelleher, Ireland’s goalkeeper, performed similarly, conceding 4 goals with a save rate of 69.2%, slightly better than Hrádecký’s.
- Both teams’ defenses are prone to making mistakes, particularly Finland when playing away, where they consistently concede at least two goals.
4. Player Form:
- Teemu Pukki, Finland’s top striker, is already 34 years old, and although he is performing well in the MLS, he has not shown his best form on the international stage this year. Joel Pohjanpalo could be an alternative option in the attack.
- On the Irish side, the attacking line’s form is uncertain. Evan Ferguson is a promising player, but his lack of experience could be an issue, while Adam Idah and Sammie Szmodics have yet to prove themselves this season.
Human Expert Analysis:
According to human analysis, both teams are facing serious issues with form and team cohesion. Finland performs better at home, having defeated Ireland 1-0 in their last two meetings, which could be a decisive factor. The Irish team is currently in a serious crisis, having lost several matches, and there are visible motivation problems, particularly under the new coach, Heimir Hallgrimsson.
Betting Tips:
Low-Risk Tips:
- Finland Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0) – Finland is playing at home and has beaten Ireland twice in recent years. Given Ireland’s current form and team issues, Finland’s chances of winning look promising. (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.98 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Low-Risk Bet Builder Tip:
- Finland to Win or Draw (1X) + Under 3.5 Goals – Both teams struggle with scoring, and it’s unlikely there will be many goals. Neither Finland nor Ireland has shown attacking dominance, so a low-scoring game is expected. (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.80 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Finland to Score Over 0.5 Goals (81%) – Finland is expected to score at least one goal at home. Based on the statistics, this bet seems almost certain. (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.43 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Summary:
The match is expected to end with a low number of goals and Finland’s dominance, considering the statistics and human expert observations. Given Ireland’s current form and motivation issues, Finland seems to have the upper hand.