EUROPE: Europa League – Play Off – Round of 16
1. Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Ferencváros Statistics (Team)
- Form: In their last 8 Europa League matches, they’ve had 4 wins and 4 losses (goal difference: 15-15).
- Defensive Issues: Their xGA (expected goals against) has been higher in several matches compared to their opponents.
- Attacking Strength: They scored 4 goals in 3 matches (against AZ Alkmaar, Malmo, Dinamo Kyiv).
- Tactical Flexibility: Often switch between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 formations.
- Home Performance: Out of 3 home EL matches, they secured 2 wins and 1 loss.
Key Players (Ferencváros)
- Barnabás Varga: 7 goals in the Europa League, 16 goals overall this season.
- Adama Traoré: 2 goals and 1 assist in the EL.
- Mohammad Abu Fani: 2 assists, high ball possession abilities.
Viktoria Plzen Statistics (Team)
- Form: In their last 6 EL matches, they achieved 3 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw.
- Away Performance: Scored in every one of their last 6 away EL matches, netting at least 2 goals in 4 of them.
- Defensive Concerns: 12.1 xGA in the EL indicates defensive vulnerabilities.
- Tactical Formation: Frequently play in 3-5-2 and 3-4-3 systems.
Key Players (Plzen)
- Pavel Šulc: 10 goals, 9 assists this season (EL: 2 goals, 2 assists).
- Matej Vydra: An experienced forward who aids attacks with creative solutions.
- Martin Jedlička: Goalkeeper with fluctuating performances in EL matches.
2. Betting Tips and Probabilities
Low-Risk Tip
- Ferencváros Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0)
- Probability: 72%
- Justification: Ferencváros is strong at home, while Plzen has lost their last 2 away matches.
Odds: 1.72 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS – Yes)
- Probability: 54%
- Justification: Plzen scored in their last 6 away EL matches, and Ferencváros has an attacking mindset.
Odds: 1.83 – Kelly: 1%
- Barnabás Varga to Score
- Probability: 48%
- Justification: He is in top form and one of the most effective players in the EL.
Odds: 2.55 – Kelly: 1%
3. Interesting and Surprising Statistical Findings
- Ferencváros plays with 48% ball possession at home in the EL, indicating they rely on rapid attacks rather than dominating play.
- Viktoria Plzen’s xG difference (-2.6) is negative, suggesting they’ve conceded more goals than expected, highlighting defensive inconsistency.
- Ferencváros has scored at least 4 goals in 3 of their last 5 EL matches, showcasing their offensive potential.
Conclusion
Based on the statistics and analyses, Ferencváros is considered a slight favorite, although Plzen poses a threat on the road. Top tips include “Both Teams to Score” and “Ferencváros Double Chance.” Keep an eye on the performances of Barnabás Varga and Pavel Šulc.