Everton – Aston Villa

ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 21

1. Team Statistics Analysis

Everton

• Current Form: Everton’s current form is weak, especially in attack. They have only won 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring only 15 goals this season.
• Strengths:
  • They have been solid defensively: After Arsenal, they have conceded the second fewest goals in their last 10 matches.
  • The arrival of a new manager (David Moyes) could bring a boost.
• Weaknesses:
  • Ineffective attacking play: Few chances created and a low xG (expected goals).
  • Main striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not fully fit.

Aston Villa

• Current Form: Villa has been performing better this season, although their away form is concerning – they have lost all of their last 5 away matches.
• Strengths:
  • Attack: Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans are in excellent form, with multiple goals and assists.
  • Defending is more stable than Everton’s.
• Weaknesses:
  • Weak away performances: 5 consecutive losses, conceding more than 2 goals per match.
  • Key players are missing (e.g. Pau Torres, Ross Barkley).

2. Player Statistics Analysis

Everton

• Key Players:
  • Jordan Pickford: Excellent save record, despite being under a lot of pressure this season.
  • Iliman Ndiaye: The team’s top scorer with 3 goals, but lack of support is a problem.
• Issues:
  • Lack of creativity in midfield (few assists and chance creation).
  • High turnover rate.

Aston Villa

• Key Players:
  • Morgan Rogers: 6 goals and 3 assists, the most dangerous attacker for the team.
  • Youri Tielemans: Creative midfielder with 4 assists.
• Issues:
  • Defensive errors, especially away from home.

Medium-Risk Tips

1. Total Goals Under 3 (Asian Total Goals)
   • Reasoning: Their last matches have averaged between 2 and 3 goals, with defensive tactics expected.
   • Probability: 70.74%

Odds: 1.41 – Kelly: 1%

2. Total Bookings Over 3.5
   • Reasoning: Both teams tend to play physically, especially in critical matches.
   • Probability: ~65%.

Odds: 1.41 – Kelly: 1%

Interesting Observations

• Aston Villa has not conceded a goal in 3 consecutive matches against Everton at Goodison Park.
• Everton has not beaten Aston Villa in the Premier League for over 8 years.
• Morgan Rogers’ contributions to goals and assists are notable for the away team.

Conclusion

Aston Villa is the stronger team on paper, but their away form weakens their chances. The new energy from Moyes could give Everton an edge, and the home advantage is also an important factor. A tight match is expected, with few goals.