ITALY: Serie A – Round 24
Team and Player Statistical Analysis
Empoli Team Statistics:
- Empoli has only managed to earn 2 points and has conceded 18 goals in the last 8 league matches, making them the worst performing team in Serie A.
- They have only won 1 game at home all season, scoring just 5 goals.
- Their xG (expected goals) values are generally low, indicating their weak attacking play. For example, they only managed an xG of 0.5 against Monza.
- Their key player, Lorenzo Colombo, has scored 5 goals in 23 matches, but the rest of the team has provided little support in attack.
Empoli Player Statistics:
- Emmanuel Gyasi plays a versatile role as both a defender and forward, but he has only registered 2 goals and 1 assist.
- In defense, Ardian Ismajli is a reliable player, but the team as a whole concedes many goals, indicating defensive weaknesses.
AC Milan Team Statistics:
- AC Milan is showing inconsistent form, with a 49.72% chance of winning the match. They have conceded at least one goal in their last 6 league fixtures, whereas they kept clean sheets in 4 out of the 5 matches before that.
- Their away form is weak: they lost their last two away games (against Juventus and Dinamo Zagreb).
- Based on xG values, they have a strong attack, achieving an xG of 2.1 against Torino, but they are vulnerable defensively.
AC Milan Player Statistics:
- Midfielder Tijjani Reijnders has scored 7 goals, which is an outstanding achievement for his position.
- Rafael Leão has recorded 4 goals and 4 assists, demonstrating the strength of their attacking line.
- Goalkeeper Mike Maignan has played in 22 matches, but the team has still conceded many goals recently.
Expert Analysis Summary
- AC Milan has reached the Coppa Italia semifinals but stands only in 8th place in the league, so they need points.
- They have conceded goals in each of their last six matches, indicating that their defense remains vulnerable.
- Empoli hasn’t scored in their last four matches against Milan, and they have never won against Milan at home historically.
- The analysis suggests the most likely outcome is an AC Milan victory by 0-1 (13.25% probability).
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Bet:
- AC Milan draw or win + Under 3.5 goals
- Reasoning: Empoli’s attack is weak, and Milan is likely to secure a narrow victory in a low-scoring match.
Odds: 1.72 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- AC Milan win
- Reasoning: Milan’s historical dominance, Empoli’s weak home form, and Milan’s attacking strength provide strong support.
- Probability: 49.72%
Odds: 1.80 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising Facts and Trivia
- Empoli has never won against AC Milan at home over 32 encounters.
- If we only considered the first half of the matches, both teams have earned the same number of points this season, indicating that Empoli starts well but collapses in the second half.
- Lorenzo Colombo, on loan from AC Milan to Empoli, is just one goal away from breaking his own season record.