SPAIN: Copa del Rey – Round of 16
Analysis
Team Statistics
- Eldense: Their poor form in the Segunda División is reflected in their 21 points from 21 matches, currently placing them in the relegation zone. They have not won in their last six league matches. However, in the Copa del Rey, they relied on strong defense to secure two narrow victories (1-0 against Atlético Paso and Cadiz).
- Valencia: The La Liga team is in 19th place, also struggling with poor form, without a win in their last five matches. However, they have progressed confidently in the cup against weaker opponents.
Player Statistics
- Eldense: Juanto Ortuno is their top scorer with 5 goals in 20 matches. Ivan Chapela is also a key player, having scored 4 goals this season.
- Valencia: Hugo Duro is their top scorer with 5 goals, but he is expected to rest. Several key players are injured or unavailable, which may affect their attacking efficiency.
Patterns and Strengths
- Eldense: Strong defense at home, but low attacking efficiency.
- Valencia: A higher-quality squad, although the team cohesion is weak due to the arrival of a new coach.
Surprises and Interesting Facts
- Despite Eldense’s poor form, their two victories in the Copa del Rey show that they are capable of causing an upset.
- Valencia is more likely to win the match (40.4% vs. Eldense 28.17%), but a close result is expected according to probability analysis.
Recommendations
Low-Risk Bet
- Valencia Draw No Bet (Asian 0 Handicap):
- Rationale: Despite Valencia’s quality advantage, Eldense could be a tough opponent at home.
- Probability: 71.84%.
Odds: 1.41 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet
- Under 2.5 Goals in the Match:
- Rationale: Both teams have low attacking efficiency. Eldense may focus on defense, while Valencia struggles with injuries.
- Probability: 70.14%.
Odds: 1.74 – Kelly: 1%
Additional Observations
- Eldense’s best chance is to slow down the game and focus on counter-attacks.
- For Valencia, building the midfield play around Pepelu will be key to avoiding an upset.
- The match is likely to be physically tough, so it is worth monitoring bets on yellow cards or other fouls.