SOUTH AMERICA: World Cup Qualifier – Round 8, September 10, 2024
Ecuador Statistical Data:
Ecuador is traditionally strong at home, having remained unbeaten in their last nine home World Cup qualifiers. Their last defeat at home came in 2021, coincidentally against Peru, which might give them extra motivation. Ecuador’s home record and the good form of their home players make a strong case for their victory. The defensive stability is reflected in the low number of goals conceded: only 4 goals allowed in 7 matches, while scoring 9.
Enner Valencia, the captain of Ecuador, remains a key player despite not having scored recently. Moisés Caicedo and Félix Torres are delivering outstanding performances in midfield and defense, particularly Caicedo, who plays regularly and acts as the team’s engine. Torres has also scored two goals during the qualifiers, making him a threat during corners or free-kicks.
Peru Statistical Data:
Peru’s current form is poor: they have only earned 3 points in 7 matches and have not won a game in the qualifiers so far. Their defense is particularly problematic, having conceded 9 goals while scoring just 2. Pedro Gallese, the goalkeeper, has performed well, but he cannot stop the constant pressure alone. The attack, led by Gianluca Lapadula, has struggled to be effective.
Peru’s defense is tight but prone to mistakes, especially away from home. It’s important to note that statistically, Peru is unlikely to score two or more goals, given their low attacking efficiency.
Low and Medium Risk Betting Tips:
- Ecuador to win (low risk): Ecuador’s home form and motivations are strong. Statistical data shows Ecuador is unbeaten at home in their last nine qualifiers, and Peru’s current poor form suggests they won’t be able to break this streak. Probability: 63%.
Odds: 1.45 – Safe Kelly: 4% - Low goal count: under 2.5 goals (medium risk): The statistics show both teams score and concede few goals. Peru has scored few goals, while Ecuador focuses more on defense. Matches like these tend to have fewer goals. Probability: 56.7%.
Odds: 1.69 – Safe Kelly: 2%