Denmark vs Serbia

Nations League match, September 8, 2024.

Comprehensive Analysis of Statistics and Trends:

The Nations League match between Denmark and Serbia presents several interesting statistical and contextual elements, leading to low and medium-risk betting suggestions.

1. Team Form and Motivation:

Denmark:

• Denmark is nearly unbeatable at home recently, winning 11 of their last 12 home matches, with one draw (against Switzerland).
• Their recent 2-0 victory over Switzerland should boost their confidence, especially as they are working with a new manager who had a successful debut. They are motivated to continue their winning streak and remain at the top of the group.
• The Danish team is dealing with injuries, but young talents like Patrick Dorgu have already proven themselves in the first match.

Serbia:

• Serbia is coming with a heavily restructured team, missing key players like Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic, which significantly affects their attacking potential.
• The 0-0 draw against Spain highlights their strong defensive performance, but they have considerable issues in attack. Given their restructured forward line, they are unlikely to score many goals.

2. Defensive and Offensive Statistics:

Denmark:

• The Danish defense is rock solid: Kasper Schmeichel showed a 100% save rate in the first match.
• The team scored two goals against Switzerland, giving optimism to their attacking lineup. Patrick Dorgu scored his first international goal, while Højbjerg once again demonstrated his importance in midfield.

Serbia:

• The Serbian defense was also strong against Spain, with goalkeeper Predrag Rajković achieving a 100% save rate.
• However, their attack was weak, managing only 9 shots, with just one on target. Strikers like Luka Jović and Veljko Birmančević were ineffective.

3. Key Players’ Performances:

Denmark:

• Pierre Højbjerg stood out in the first match with one goal and one assist. He is the engine of the midfield and is expected to dominate the game again.
• Kasper Schmeichel is a key figure in the Danish defense, while Joachim Andersen and Jannik Vestergaard provided stable defensive performances.

Serbia:

• In defense, Nikola Milenković and Strahinja Pavlović were crucial in stopping Spain’s attacks.
• Their attack lacked standout performances, which can be attributed to injuries and missing key players.

Betting Tips by Risk Level:

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Denmark to Win (42.2% probability, 1.82x, Recommended stake: 3%): Denmark is on an unbeatable home streak and secured a confident victory in their first match. Despite injuries, they appear stronger than a depleted Serbian team.
   • Risk: Low
2. Under 2.5 Goals (58.03% probability, 1.67x, Recommended stake: 2%): Based on both teams’ defensive statistics, it is likely that there will be few goals. Serbia struggled to exploit their attacking opportunities, while Denmark has a strong defense.
   • Risk: Medium
3. Under 3.5 Goals (78.71% probability, 1.23x, Recommended stake: 2%): The statistics suggest that there won’t be many goals in the match. Both teams have strong defenses, and their forward lines are not highly effective.
   • Risk: Low
4. Both Teams Not to Score (52.5% probability, 1.77x, Recommended stake: 2%): Due to Serbia’s attacking weakness, it is unlikely they will score, while Denmark is expected to keep a clean sheet.
   • Risk: Low

EXTRA TIP:

Denmark to Win 1-0 (12.31% probability): This is the most likely result, considering Denmark’s defense and Serbia’s offensive struggles.

• Risk: High

Conclusion:

Based on the key characteristics of the match, the most likely outcome is a Danish victory with few goals. Serbia’s attack is weak, while Denmark has a solid defense and is in excellent form at home.