BRAZIL: Serie A Betano – Round 34
Team Statistics Overview
Cuiabá
- Improvement in defense: They have conceded only three goals in their last eight matches, showing significant progress compared to the start of the season. However, their attacking struggles persist, with five consecutive games without scoring a goal.
- Points and xG: Averaging 1.12 points per match, with an xG (expected goals) of 36.5, reflecting low efficiency.
- Key players: Isidro Pitta is their top scorer with 7 goals in the league, but the lack of support from other forwards remains an issue.
Flamengo
- Consistent performance: Flamengo is in the top 4, showing strong form across all competitions. Their xG is high (60.7), and they have a 41.48% chance of winning the match.
- Absentees: Several key players, such as Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Pedro, are unavailable due to injuries or international duties, which might weaken their attack.
- Attacking efficiency: Their expected goal difference (+29.5) is among the best in the league, supported by solid defense (xGA: 31.2), which helps in tight matches.
Player Statistics Overview
Cuiabá Players
- Defensive dominance: Marllon Borges stands out with a 74% success rate in aerial duels.
- Weak attack: Apart from Isidro Pitta, the team lacks a consistent goal scorer.
- Defensive reliance: Goalkeeper Walter has an xGA of 41.1, highlighting his importance in their defensive stability.
Flamengo Players
- Focus on attackers: Matheus Goncalves, Michael, and Bruno Henrique lead the attack, but creativity might be limited due to absentees.
- Strong defense: Fabricio Bruno and Ayrton Lucas are confident in defense, with 67.3% and 50% success in duels, respectively.
- Goalkeeping efficiency: Agustín Rossi’s xGA of 35 reflects a solid defensive setup.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips
- Under 2.5 goals in the match
- Reasoning: Both teams have strong defenses but struggle in attack. Most of their recent games have been low-scoring.
- Probability: 61.55%.
- Flamengo Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0)
- Reasoning: Flamengo is in better form and remains favorites despite their absentees.
- Probability: 70%.
Key Observations
- Cuiabá’s defensive improvement: Despite their inability to secure many points, their defense has improved significantly compared to earlier in the season.
- Flamengo’s attacking challenges: Injuries have placed extra pressure on their attackers, but their squad depth might mitigate these issues.
- Cuiabá’s home struggles: They rarely perform well at the Arena Pantanal, a disadvantage in their fight against relegation.