EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – League A – 3rd Round – 12 October 2024
Croatia Statistical Analysis:
- Goals and Attack Statistics: Croatia has scored 2 goals in its two matches so far, and the statistics show mixed performances in the attacking line. Luka Modrić stood out as the sole goal scorer, while forwards like Kramarić and Matanovic failed to find the net. However, Kramarić has attempted a high number of shots (5.63 shots/90 minutes), suggesting that a goal from him may come soon.
- Defense and Goalkeeping Performance: Dominik Livaković has maintained a 75% save rate so far, which is considered good. The defense has been stable, conceding only 2 goals in the two matches. Gvardiol, Šutalo, and Erlić have also shown reliable defensive performances.
- Yellow Cards and Fouls: Croatian players have received only 6 yellow cards across two matches, indicating discipline in defense. Kovacic and Petković have been the most active in terms of committing fouls.
Scotland Statistical Analysis:
- Goals and Attack Statistics: Scotland has also scored 2 goals in its two matches but conceded 5 goals, indicating a weak defense. Scott McTominay stood out with 2 goals and 4 shots on target. McTominay and Gilmour pose the biggest threat to Croatia’s defense.
- Defense and Goalkeeping Performance: Angus Gunn, who has been Scotland’s main goalkeeper so far, has shown a 66.7% save rate, which is not very strong. Additionally, due to injuries, 41-year-old Craig Gordon might start, which could present challenges due to his age and slower reflexes.
- Yellow Cards and Fouls: Scottish players have accumulated more yellow cards (31 fouls and 3 yellow cards in total), which indicates a higher risk of fouls compared to the Croatian side.
Motivation and Situation:
According to the analysis, Scotland is in poor form, winless for a long time, and missing several key players such as Kieran Tierney and Nathan Patterson. The Scottish defense is very vulnerable, while Croatia has been performing consistently well on home soil in recent matches.
Low-Risk Bet:
- Croatia Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0) – This bet secures Croatia’s win with a refund if the match ends in a draw. (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.24 – Safe Kelly: 6%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Croatian Win (Probability: 70.61%) – Croatia is strong at home, while Scotland’s current form and injury concerns make it unlikely for them to prevent a Croatian win. Statistics and experts confirm Croatia as the favorite. (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.63 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary:
Based on the data and expert analysis, a Croatian victory is the most likely outcome, while Scotland’s poor form means they have a low chance of scoring. The match is expected to have few goals, with Croatia dominating the game.