ITALY: Serie A – Matchday 13
Team Statistical Analysis
Como:
- Form: Como remains winless in their last 6 Serie A matches (3 losses, 3 draws). Defensive issues are prominent as they haven’t kept a clean sheet all season.
- Attack: Patrick Cutrone is their most dangerous forward with 4 goals. However, their xG (expected goals) suggests that their offensive plays lack efficiency.
- Defense: The defense has been a critical weakness, conceding ten goals in their last four home matches.
- Key Players: Patrick Cutrone and Gabriel Strefezza are pivotal in attack. In defense, Dossena excels in aerial duels with a 67.9% success rate.
Fiorentina:
- Form: Unbeaten in their last 8 Serie A games, winning 7. Moise Kean is in fantastic form with 11 goals this season.
- Defense: A solid backline has kept clean sheets in their last five away matches, with the 4-4-2 formation proving effective.
- Attack: Moise Kean is supported by Andrea Colpani and Robin Gosens, who play significant roles.
- Key Players: Moise Kean (xG 6.4) and Dodô (strong defensive contributions with 63 ball recoveries).
Interesting Facts:
- Como has remained unbeaten at home against Fiorentina in recent years (7 matches undefeated).
- Moise Kean’s exceptional form could be decisive, especially against Como’s defensive struggles.
- Expert analysis suggests Fiorentina has a 51.33% chance of winning, compared to Como’s 23.89%.
Betting Tips (Low and Medium Risk)
Low Risk:
- Fiorentina Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0)
- Probability: 66.33%
- Reasoning: Fiorentina’s excellent form, solid defense, and Moise Kean’s attacking prowess weaken Como’s chances.
Odds: 1.62 – Kelly: 4%
Medium Risk:
- Moise Kean to Score
- Probability: 65%
- Reasoning: Kean’s outstanding form, scoring in his last three matches.
Odds: 2.75 – Kelly: 1%
Special Observations
- Historical Advantage: While Fiorentina is in strong form, Como has consistently performed well at home against them.
- Tactical Transformation: Raffaele Palladino’s new system has stabilized Fiorentina’s defense, which could be crucial for victory.
- Key Players: Patrick Cutrone might be highly motivated to perform against his former team.