SOUTH AMERICA: World Cup Qualifiers – Round 9
The statistical analysis and expert opinions on the clash between Chile and Brazil paint a clear picture of both teams’ current status. The form of Chile and Brazil, the performances of available players, and the teams’ motivations heavily influence the expected outcome before the match.
Statistical and Expert Analysis
- Team Form:
- Chile is in a dire form: they have won only one of their last 6 matches, and that victory was against the weakest team in the group, Peru. This statistic highlights that the team is almost in complete crisis. Their goal production is low, and their defense allows many goal-scoring opportunities.
- Brazil is not in peak form either, but compared to Chile, they have a much stronger offensive line. Out of their last 9 competitive matches, they have only won two, but the team’s history and strength remain noteworthy.
- Motivation:
- Chile will likely fight for their last chance not to miss out on the World Cup for the third time in a row. However, their team morale is low, as shown by their home defeat to Bolivia.
- For Brazil, victory is crucial, as another failure could put their World Cup participation at serious risk. Experts emphasize that this is one of the best opportunities for Brazil to get back on track.
- Injuries and Expected Lineups:
- Chile is missing several key players, such as Alexis Sánchez and Mauricio Isla, which further weakens the team.
- Brazil is also without key players like Alisson and Vinicius Junior, which is a big loss, but they have enough talent to cover these gaps. Ederson, Rodrygo, and Endrick are expected to play key roles.
Detailed Statistical Insights
- Chile’s Weak Defense:
- The Chilean defense has conceded 12 goals in 8 matches, an average of 1.5 goals per match. Brazil’s attackers, like Rodrygo and Neymar, who reliably score (Rodrygo 3 goals in 8 matches, Neymar 2 goals in 4 matches), can easily exploit this statistical weakness.
- Brazil’s Offense:
- Brazil has scored 9 goals in the qualifiers so far, which is not the strongest performance, but Chile’s defense appears weak. Players like Raphinha and Rodrygo pose a serious threat. Chile’s goalkeeper, Cortés, has a 69% save rate, which is insufficient against a strong attacking line.
- Goal Opportunities and Shots:
- Chile has scored only 8 goals so far, with just 3 goals from 89 attempts, which means a 0.03 goals/shot ratio. This shows that Chile’s attack is weak and inaccurate. Brazil, on the other hand, has converted 9 goals from 86 attempts. Players like Neymar and Rodrygo, who take a lot of shots and aim with higher accuracy, could further increase this number.
- Yellow Cards and Fouls:
- Both teams are expected to commit fouls: Chile has received 22 yellow cards, and Brazil 18. Based on the intensity of the match and the teams’ situations, a high number of fouls is expected.
Low-Risk Bet:
- Brazil to Win (Probability: 37.14%)
- Although Brazil’s form is not the best, the statistics and Chile’s current situation make Brazil the favorites. Experts also highlight that Chile is in crisis.
- Risk Level: Low.
Odds: 1.67 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Brazil Over 1.5 Goals (Probability: 37.26%)
- Brazil’s offensive line will likely break through Chile’s defense, which has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match. Rodrygo and Raphinha’s form is promising.
- Risk Level: Medium.
Odds: 1.95 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary
Brazil is favored to win, but Chile at home cannot be completely written off. The most likely scenario is a Brazilian victory by 1-2 or 0-2. However, it is also worth paying attention to yellow cards and fouls, as there are expected to be many.