Bulgaria – Northern Ireland

Nations League, 8 September 2024

Based on the analysis, I would highlight the following points for the match, taking into account both statistical data and human analysis:

Statistical Analysis:

1. Bulgaria’s Defense: Bulgaria’s defense can be considered stable, as they have conceded only two goals in their last six matches. This is further reinforced by their most recent game, which ended in a 0-0 draw against Belarus. The fact that they allow so few goals could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this match. However, their defense is not free of yellow cards, as seen with Alex Petkov.
2. Goal Scoring Opportunities and Efficiency: Bulgaria showed weak attacking statistics in their most recent game. Out of their 17 shots, only 9 were on target, and they failed to score. This highlights their limited attacking potential and inability to capitalize on opportunities.
3. Northern Ireland’s Defense: Northern Ireland has also demonstrated solid defense in recent times. They kept a clean sheet in four of their last six matches, losing only once in a friendly against Spain. Therefore, it is likely that they will also be difficult for Bulgaria to score against.
4. Attacking Statistics: Northern Ireland’s attack appears more efficient, especially after their 2-0 victory over Luxembourg, where Paddy McNair and Daniel Ballard secured the win. However, they are less successful away from home, which raises questions about whether they can maintain this form against Bulgaria.

Teams’ Motivation and Form:

• Bulgaria: According to human analysis, Bulgaria has become a stable but draw-prone team under their current manager. Five of their last six matches ended in a draw. The team is built on stability but lacks many victories, which suggests they are hard to beat but also struggle to win.
• Northern Ireland: The team’s motivation is high, as they have returned to solid form under Michael O’Neill. Their recent win over Luxembourg has strengthened their belief that they can win this group. However, analysis also suggests that Northern Ireland tends to perform worse away than at home.

Probable Outcomes:

Based on statistical models and historical data, the most likely outcome is a Bulgaria win with a probability of 46.51%, a draw at 26.55%, and a Northern Ireland win at 26.94%.

Recommended Betting Tips:

1. Bulgaria or Draw (Double Chance): Low risk
   • Based on the statistical analysis, Bulgaria has strong defense and often draws under their current manager. Northern Ireland’s weak away form makes this tip appear low risk.
   • Probability: 73.06%, 1.40x, Kelly Criterion: 5.71%.
2. Under 2.5 Goals: Low risk
   • Both teams have strong defenses and have scored or conceded few goals in recent matches. Five of Bulgaria’s last six games ended in a draw, supporting this tip.
   • Probability: 55.38%, 1.48x, Suggested Stake: 2%.
3. Both Teams Not to Score: Low risk
   • Considering the strong defenses of both Bulgaria and Northern Ireland, it is unlikely that both teams will score. Bulgaria’s recent matches ended in goalless draws, and Northern Ireland has also kept several clean sheets.
   • Probability: 51.12%, 1.73x, Suggested Stake: 2%.
4. Over 7.5 Corners in the Match: Medium risk
   • Both teams place significant emphasis on wing attacks, which often result in corners. According to the statistics, both Bulgaria and Northern Ireland are prone to winning many corners.
   • 1.41x, Suggested Stake: 2%.

Summary:

Based on the statistical data and analysis, the safest betting options are related to a low-scoring game and yellow cards. Given the defensive approach of both teams and their limited attacking potential, low-risk betting opportunities are the draw or Bulgaria’s win and under 2.5 goals in the match.