EUROPE: Champions League – Play Off – Round of 16
Team Statistics Comparison
Brest:
- Average Goals Scored (GF): 1.25
- Average Goals Conceded (GA): 1.375
- Expected Goals (xG): 1.21
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.56
- Average Possession: 43.5%
PSG:
- Average Goals Scored (GF): 1.75
- Average Goals Conceded (GA): 1.125
- Expected Goals (xG): 2.04
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.86
- Average Possession: 61.9%
Analysis:
PSG has significantly better attacking and defensive stats. Their average expected goals (xG) are higher, while their expected goals against (xGA) are lower compared to Brest. This indicates strong attacking potential and solid defense.
Player Performance Analysis
Brest Top Scorers:
- Abdallah Sima: 3 goals
- Squad Total: 9 goals (collective performance)
- Ludovic Ajorque: 0 goals, but 2 assists
PSG Top Scorers:
- Ousmane Dembélé: 4 goals, 1 assist
- Squad Total: 13 goals
- Achraf Hakimi: 1 goal, 3 assists
Top Defenders (Based on Ball Recoveries):
- Brest: Kenny Lala (42 ball recoveries)
- PSG: Achraf Hakimi (56 ball recoveries)
Analysis:
Ousmane Dembélé is in exceptional form, while Achraf Hakimi is crucial both in attack and defense. On the Brest side, Abdallah Sima poses a threat in attack, while Ludovic Ajorque excels in providing assists.
Low-Risk Tip:
- PSG Win
- Reasoning: PSG boasts a more powerful attack and a more stable defense. Historical stats between the teams also favor PSG.
- Probability: 68.69%.
Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match
- Reasoning: Given PSG’s strong attack (1.75 goals/match) and Brest’s weak defense (1.375 goals conceded/match), a high-scoring game is likely.
- Probability: 63.8%.
Odds: 1.48 – Kelly: 1%
- Both Teams to Score
- Reasoning: Brest might score on home ground, while PSG’s attack is almost guaranteed to find the net.
- Probability: 55.14%.
Odds: 1.73 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising Facts from the Analysis
- Brest’s Historical Disadvantage: Brest has not beaten PSG in 30 matches, with their last victory dating back to 1985.
- Ludovic Ajorque’s Pressing: Ajorque has applied pressure in the opponent’s half 447 times, the most in the entire Champions League group stage.
- PSG’s Current Form: PSG is on a 16-game unbeaten streak and has won their last four matches.