Brentford – Manchester City

ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 21

Analysis Based on Data

Team-level Statistics:

1. Brentford:
   • Their home performance has been mixed: they have lost two of their last three Premier League home matches.
   • Goal-scoring: They average 1.35 goals per match but are prone to losing their lead, as they have been defeated five times this season after taking the lead.
   • Defensive Weaknesses: They concede an average of 1.6 goals per game, which indicates weaker defense, especially against higher-quality attacking sides.
2. Manchester City:
   • Continuous improvement: They have won their last three Premier League matches and scored in their last seven league games.
   • High-scoring attackers: They average 2.3 goals per match. The team is led by Erling Haaland, who has 16 goals and is one of the season’s top scorers.
   • Strong defense: They concede an average of just 0.9 goals per game, showing outstanding stability.

Player-level Statistics:

1. Brentford Players:
   • Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa provide the attacking strength, with the two of them scoring 63% of the team’s home goals.
   • Goalkeeper Mark Flekken’s form has been mixed, with a save percentage of just 68%, which may raise concerns.
2. Manchester City Players:
   • Erling Haaland’s dominance is clear, with an xG (expected goals) of 7.7, highlighting his excellent finishing ability.
   • Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne’s creativity is key, as they have combined for 10 assists.

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Manchester City to win (Probability: ~59%)
   • Reasoning: The team’s form and attacking strength are expected to dominate Brentford’s weaker defense.
   • Supporting Statistic: City has not lost to Brentford since 2023.

Odds: 1.66 – Kelly: 2%

2. Over 2.5 goals (Probability: ~70%)
   • Reasoning: Both teams are inclined towards an open game, and Manchester City’s attack is expected to be strong.
   • Supporting Statistic: In four of City’s last five matches, at least three goals were scored.

Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tip:

3. Both teams to score (Probability: ~66%)
   • Reasoning: Brentford tends to score at home, while City, despite its strong defense, is likely to concede a goal.
   • Supporting Statistic: Both teams have scored in the last three encounters between them.

Odds: 1.47 – Kelly: 1%

Interesting Facts and Observations:

1. Brentford’s issue with retaining a lead: They have lost five times after taking the lead, which suggests mental and tactical problems.
2. Manchester City’s strength in comebacks: They have won four matches in which they were behind, demonstrating their tactical flexibility.
3. Differences in playing styles: Brentford tends to rely on quick counter-attacks, while Manchester City focuses on possession and creative build-up play.