SOUTH AMERICA: World Cup Qualifiers – Round 7, September 7, 2024
Brazil’s Performance:
Brazil’s recent results in the World Cup qualifiers have been mixed (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). This match is particularly important for the Brazilian team, as they currently sit in sixth place in the table, an unusual position for them. According to analysis, Brazil has a 64.77% chance of winning the match. Key players like Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior have shown consistent performances, especially Rodrygo, who has scored 2 goals in 5 matches. However, Neymar’s absence reduces their attacking potential, though the defense and midfield continue to perform steadily.
Ecuador’s Performance:
Ecuador remains unbeaten in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws), which gives the team confidence. However, Ecuador’s chances of winning are much lower, at just 12.98%. The return of Pervis Estupiñán to strengthen the defense and the experience of Enner Valencia could be important factors. Nevertheless, Ecuador’s goal count has been low, and they are unlikely to take the lead against Brazil.
Tactical and Player Analysis:
Even without Neymar, Brazil’s attacking potential is significant, particularly with Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo on the field. Despite Ecuador’s stable defense, it is less likely that they will withstand multiple attacks. Ecuador’s defense could be prone to errors, especially under pressure from Brazil’s attackers.
Tips and Probabilities:
Low-risk tip:
- Brazil to win (low risk): Based on statistics, a Brazil victory is the most likely outcome, with a 64.77% probability. The home advantage, as well as the motivation to improve their qualifying performance, are additional factors that increase Brazil’s chances. Odds: 1.45 – Kelly: 5%
Medium-risk tip:
- Over 4.5 yellow cards (medium risk): Ecuador’s physical style of play often leads to yellow cards. Based on their statistics, they have accumulated several yellow cards, and since Brazil is expected to dominate the match, Ecuador will likely need to play more aggressively in defense. Odds: 1.87 – Kelly: 2%